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NUI Seanad Donkey Derby 2011

2011-04-05T01:07:00.000-07:00

Why, why are they making us do this again? I had thought we were all elected out at this stage but my morning radio listening was spoiled last Thursday when I ended up with 2 whole hours of Seanad hopefuls or the hopeless might be more accurate. So what do we make of them?

CANNING, Thomas Paul Gabriel, Civil Engineer
The very civil engineer who believes that Engineers built this country, on rock and roll!

COWLEY, Matthias Walter, Teacher
Seems to have stalled in flight. We presume he is still running but no evidence that we can see.

COYLE, James, Smurfit Business School Graduate, Chartered Accountant , Entrepreneur
Plans to move to close to the Oireachtas so that he doesn’t have to commute. Ran in DSE in the general election and was outpolled not alone by the darling of the blogs Dylan Haskins but by someone who merely comments on blogs from time to time.

CROWN, John, Consultant Doctor
A big wheel and though one wonders where he will find the time, he could well be in pole positions to take the vacant seat.

DOORLEY, James, Assistant Director, National Youth Council of Ireland
Hard to pick from the 2 Labourites – Doorley appears to running a larger ground campaign while O’Connell has made more of a national profile in the last few weeks.

HEALY, Paddy, Former President, Teachers Union of Ireland
Ah, Paddy. The man who will save us from Thatcher, she is nearly dead at this stage. His vote will hardly shift much from the last time he ran. About 3 or 4%

KELLEHER, Declan, Principal Teacher
Lacks Joe O’Toole easy way but not his INTO vote base, does sort of over reach with claims that he (and not Fintan O’Toole or anyone else) was the leader of the public sector marches. Probably starts with 3,000 votes in the bag after that he has to apply outside of his union base, harder to do that one might imagine

KENNEDY, John Paul Alexander, Software Engineer
Did respectably last time out but it would seem likely this time to be out shone by his party colleague who is just below him on the ballot paper. Still some degree of name recognition should keep him closer to the 4 figure mark than might otherwise be the case.

KEOGH, Helen, Chief Executive World Vision Ireland, Chairperson of Dóchas
The highest profile FGer going into it, and with appearances on Vincent Browne and the like has the highest profile during it too. Hard to see that translating into
more than 2,000 votes though given the very splintered nature of the race.

LANGAN, Mick, Tourism Promoter, Guide and Photographer
Didn’t sent a leaflet which saved us 47,000 grand in postage apparently, and himself a few grand in leaflets.

LYNAM, Paul, Higher Education Representative
The younger of the two FF inclined candidates, barely out of short trousers. Will be more recently in the memory of recent graduates of UCD at least but most of them aren’t on the register. Has actually been out canvassing though

MCCURTIN, David Thomas , Primary School Teacher
The other primary school teacher might get a southern INTO vote, but it is likely to transfer back to Kelleher and the other teachers.

MOLLOY, Michael Sean “Mick”, Medical Doctor
Former IMO president, likely to ensure that the medical vote comes out in force. Much of that will simply transfer to John Crown after that though.

MOONEY, Peter, Freelance Radio Producer
Good media connections and packaging himself as Brendan Ryan 2.0

MULLEN, Rónán, Senator and Lecturer
Not the dark horse he was last time, still likely to poll close to what he got last time but transfers might prove much harder to get. Of the two incumbents the more likely faller but even with a collapse in his 1st preference vote would be starting well in the hunt.

Ó BROIN, Eoin, Policy Analyst
The SF candidate. Bright, acticulate, but irrelevant as people who like SF will vote for him anyway and those who don’t simply won’t. Harsh but thems the breaks. Should get 2/3% mind but not likely to trouble a seat.

O BROLCHÁIN, Niall, Senator
Ah the Greens, can’t see him outpolling Brendan Price who will be able to call home the real environmental people this time.

Ó CADHLA, Diarmaid Seán, Fear Gnó
So we need to retain all our TDs, not look to have stronger Oireachtas committees, or have a direct petition system from the citizenry and this in the name of more direct democracy?

O’CONNELL, Donncha, Lecturer
The other of the Labourties – possible for one or the other of them could make it home if they transfer decently to one another but if they don’t it could be a seat they left behind. There should be enough votes between what Brendan Ryan and Valerie Bresnihan got previously to elect one of them, but with both running they might have wasted the chance.

O’CONNOR, Regina Mary, Political and Legal Advisor, European Parliament
So this time FF are running as their proxy a European expert who has apparently discovered that there are billions of euro in the EU! Who knew?

O’DONNELL, Francis Martin, Diplomat, Retired UN Representative.
This is the man with the extensive Wikipedia entry. Knight protector of this and honourable mention for that, he has nursed Ukraine towards democracy (and look how that has worked out!) and he can do the same for us. If only we would elect him and then he can come home. Can he not afford the price of the air fare otherwise?

O’DONOGHUE, James, Scientist
Limerick based science bloke. (is it something in the water in Limerick, the next candidate claims Limerick lineage too)

O’SHEA FARREN, Linda, Solicitor, Disability Rights Advocate and Member-Nominated Independent Director of EBS
We’re really not sure if having the membership of the board of a financial institution against your name in an election is the wisest move in the current climate even if the EBS appears to be the least badly run of the lot. I half expect to see a campaign endorsement from Hilary Clinton emerge at some stage. Makes the point repeatedly that she is a woman and that few women have been elected, rather ignores the fact that there is nothing to stop them running in this particular race and if they don’t run they can’t get elected.

O’SULLIVAN, Bernadine, Teacher and Pensions Campaigner
Isn’t the bold Bernadine not tired of this yet? Is there no one else in the ASTI who is willing to run or are they scared of crossing her if they throw shapes at contesting the race?

PRICE, Brendan Mary, Biologist, Director, Irish Seal Sanctuary
He should be able about to recoup the environmental vote after the interventions of Martin Hogan and Garavan last time cut into his base.

QUINN, Feargal, Senator
He should be safe unless enough people think he is so safe that they decide to lend their votes in such numbers that he can’t overhaul the rest of the field. That’s highly unlikely

SULLIVAN, Daniel Kevin, Software Professional
Another of the return offenders, there might be 3,000 votes between the 3 FGers.

There might even have been enough votes

Likely order of placements at this stage?
1) Quinn

2) Mullen

3) Crown

4) Kelleher

5) Mooney

6) Doorley

7) O’Connell

8) O’Sullivan

9) Price

10) Healy

11) Keogh

12) Who cares?

Wexford

2011-02-14T04:28:00.001-08:00

Current Seat allocation 5 seater FF2 FG 2 Lab 1

2007 result FF 42.19% FG 31.56% Lab 13.77% PD 3.15% Green 1.17% SF 7.39% Independents 0.78%

John Browne
Seán Connick
Michael D'Arcy
Paul Kehoe
Liam Twomey*
Pat Cody
Brendan Howlin
Danny Forde
Anthony Kelly
Seamus O'Brien
Ruairí de Valera
John Dwyer
Siobhán Roseingrave
Mick Wallace

FF will be fight tooth and claw to retain their seat and in a 5 seater you would expect them to, but their problem could be that the transfer rate between their two candidates might be that poor that their haul vote would suggest might not materialise.

Labour do not have a great history of managing their vote especially where they have a big candidate out in front. The slew of independents will mean lots of people on a few hundred votes and it will be where these votes trend towards that will determine who gets the final seats. FG will get 2 and Labour 1 but after that I suspect FF could lose out big time and end up with too even a split in their vote tally.

Prediction 18.19% FG 41.56% Lab 21.77% Green 0.31% SF 11.39% Independents 6.78%

FG 3 Lab 1 SF 1

Wicklow

2011-02-14T03:34:00.000-08:00

Current Allocation FF 2 FG 2 Lab 1

Dick Roche

Pat Fitzgerald

Andrew Doyle

Billy Timmins

Simon Harris

Anne Ferris

Tom Fortune

Conal Kavanagh

Niall Byrne

John Brady

Joe Behan

Kevin Carroll

Thomas Clarke

Peter Dempsey

Stephen Donnelly

Eugene Finnegan

Anthony Fitzgerald

Pat Kavanagh

Charlie Keddy

Nicky Kelly

Donal Kiernan

Gerry Kinsella

Michael Mulvihill

Jim Tallon

Jaysus, that's a list and a half. We just can't see FF getting a 2nd seat and Nicky Kelly running as an independent would seem to be aimed more at scuppering Labour’s chances of a gain or even of retaining their seat than anything else so they’re not getting a 2nd either. Behan should probably have done enough to distance himself from FF but you never know it might all have been in vain.

Predicted % Result FF 18.05 FG 33.15 Lab 17.73 SF 8.98 Greens 3.38 Inds 18.70
Seat Prediction is FF 1, FG 2 Lab 1, Ind FF1

Carlow Kilkenny

2011-02-09T07:54:00.000-08:00

Current seat Allocation 5 seats FF 3 FG 1 Grn 1

Candidates declared to date

Bobby Aylward

John McGuinness

Cllr Jennifer Murnane O'Connor

Cllr Patrick Deering

Phil Hogan

Sen John Paul Phelan

Cllr Ann Phelan

Cllr Des Hurley

Mary White

Kathleen Funchion

Cllr John Cassin

Johnny Couchman

John Dalton

Stephen Kelly

Raemie Leahy

Conor Mac Liam

David Murphy

John O'Hara

Noel Walsh

SF with two candidates appears to be more focused on raising profiles in advance of the next local elections than anything else. While Labour might have made a mistake running two again it will probably pay off this time with the increase in the national vote and the likelihood that they will be the more transfer attractive to the less party aligned neutrals.

Our prediction is for FF to come in with 24% of the vote, FG 38%, Labour 18%, SF 7%, Greens 4%, Indo 2%. We will post individual candidate predictions later on when we’ve had more coffee and if we can keep the breakfast down.

Seat Prediction FF 1 FG3 Lab 1

Louth

2011-02-09T07:52:00.000-08:00

Current Seat allocation 4 FF 2 FG 1 SF1

Candidates Declared to date

Cllr Declan Breathnach FF

Sen James Carroll FF

Fergus O'Dowd FG

Peter Fitzpatrick FG

Cllr Gerald Nash Lab

Mary Moran Lab

Mark Deary Green

Gerry Adams DF

Thomas Clare Ind

Gerry Crilly Ind

Seamus Kirk is automatically re-elected as Ceann Comhairle which is just as well as his prospects if he was campaigning might not be that great. FF senator for a day James Carroll will run about talking about how he is clean and devoid of any responsibility for what the government did given that he’s in the Oireachtas less than a wet week which is true. Mark Dreary will hold a personal vote and might be one of those who can provide a bridge to the Green rebuilding effort post this election. Labour should given its strong rise in Leinster and attractiveness to the commuter voter is able to swing this one. If not then Labour will end up providing FG with the transfers need to get a 2^nd seat. SF aren’t getting a 2^nd, nor FF a 3^rd or the Greens won't get 1 so it’s really down to FG and Labour and the national trend would tend to favour Labour.

Vote Prediction FF 24% FG 35% SF 18% Lab 15% Green 4% Indo 4%

FF 2 SF 1 FG 1 Lab 1

The throat goes national

2011-02-07T09:20:00.001-08:00

We have over the years established a bit of a track record in the election prediction business, but it’s been mainly a local effort, arsing about UL and considering the local goings-on. Not for us appearances on Rte or the radio. For the first few years the predictions were pretty good all told, especially when you understand that we weren’t actually doing anything in the way of polling as it is commonly understood. Towards the end it all unravelled a bit but we’re inclined to ignore that bad patch if you will. We thought this time out we’d have a real go at predictions on the national stage, after making a trail run at the 2007 Seanad elections. We hope to get to all the constituencies up eventually but we also might not, there are real world jobs to be done, hair needs cutting, the cowshed has to be cleaned and turf cut (ok the turf is staying in the ground until the weather is much drier and there is considerably more of a stretch in the evenings but you get the idea)

We use long established scientific methods based on travelling to the constituencies, meeting people from the constituencies, passing by people in train stations who look like they have been to the constituency and looking long and hard at the constituencies on google maps. We also combine this modern approach with consideration of the entrails of animals often times cooked into a crispy blackness and wrapped in a burger Bap. It’s unpleasant work and has done considerable harm to our figures but it works.

We might even package the lot up with some useful charts, maps and other graphics for you to download and print off your own selection to enjoy on count day. We will do some count templates for the various seats 3/4/5 seaters. And we might have charts and pretty pictures and graphics if time allows.

So let’s get predicting!

These predictions are based on the notion that irrespective of the fluctuations in the polls that the likely national of share of the vote right now is

FF 23% FG 34% Lab 19% SF 11% Green 2% Independents 9% ULA 2%

We are of the belief that there is a significant shy bladder factor at play with FF and that many of those who like that nice Mr. Gilmore won’t be able bring themselves to vote for that same effing Labour candidate that they weren’t able to bring themselves to vote for long before now. FG is doing alright but not spectacular and that any Enda problem is cancelled out by the candidates themselves. That the votes the Greens lost in 2009 aren’t coming back to them and so they’re going to lose worse yet they will be along with FF, for this election at least, more transfer repellent than SF was in the darkest days of the armed struggle. And then we have the latest People before Profit front, is this the front for the front of the Socialist Workers Party will attract some decent votes that might otherwise have gone to SF? But barring the vote that the main contenders will get based on their own local track record we don’t see that the ULA candidate in Roscommon will be bothering the count for long.

When it comes to independents, lots of people like the idea of an independent until they got a close look at the actual independents that are running for the people who want a Jackie Healy Rae type in Dublin South then Shane Ross is not the man for them as vice versa.

The list of candidates will be finalised on Feb 9th but we will outline a few constituencies in the next 24hrs in advance of that to give a flavour of what we think is likely to happen at this point and give you an idea of what we do. Feel free to link, tweet, or email the contact details around. We can be emailed but we don’t do requests, this isn’t Larry Gogan.

Kerry North – West Limerick or the Earl of Desmond revival Constituency

2011-02-07T09:03:00.000-08:00

Current Seat allocation 3 seater - FF 1 SF 1 FG 1

Vote % in 2007

FF 31 FG 32 SF 20% Lab 11 Grn 2 Indo 3%

Candidates Declared to date

Tom McEllistrim

Jimmy Deenihan

John Sheahan

Arthur Spring

Tom Donovan

Martin Ferris

Mary Fitzgibbon

Sam Locke

John McKenna

Bridget O'Brien

Mick Reidy

We expect Martin Ferris to top the poll here as we suspect that FG are in the process of pulling a very sly one altogether. Most polls local and extrapolations of national polls applied locally have Jimmy Deenihan on 30% and more with his running mate on the mid single figures around 5/7% but where local polls go badly wrong is where a candidate has a disproportionate amount of the vote in a couple of areas FG got 52% in the Rathkeale LEA and got 3 out of 4 seats in 2009. Cllr Sheahan doubled his own vote

So instead of FG getting one guy elected with 32% and the other bloke getting 7%, what if they could manage it better so that one got 20% while the other got 15% (allowing for some losses in the management effort) and where this to place the 2nd FG ahead of either an underperforming Labour candidate or imploding FF candidate it might just be possible for the 2nd FGer to get the transferred needed to overhaul either the FFer or the Labour candidate (depending on which of the scenarios happened). Is it likely? Not really but it is plausible and suggests why FG is running two here: the aim is to be able to take best advantage if either scenario comes about. More so as it locks up the locally inclined West Limerick vote so that the others don’t have free access to it while not putting Deenihan’s seat in any real jeopardy.

Vote prediction FF 16% FG 38% Sf 24% Lab 20% Independent 2%

Seat Prediction Lab 1 SF 1 FG 1 – but if Spring underperforms or McE completely blows up don’t be astounded to see it end up as FG 2 SF 1

Vote for me - the national version

2011-02-04T06:37:00.000-08:00

Thinking of reviving the auld blog and giving it a run out on the national scene. Watch this space, or the space around this space.

Election Day! Part the 2nd

2010-03-11T08:02:00.000-08:00

These are our final predictions

Turnout under 2,000 or so.

Presidential

We feel there has been some movement in the Presidential race and that Ruan has dropped back a bit, call it complacency in the minds of the voters, call it what have you done for me lately. We still don't reckon it will cost him the race but however the main movement is not in the person who is perceived at the moment to be in 2nd place but in one of the back markers.

The most likely scenario we see is Cloheesy and Brosnan go out on the first count and favour Ryan slightly over Dillon and Rockett but probably not enough for Ryan to catch Rockett or for Ruan to be elected. Then Ryan goes and Ruan stays well ahead of Rockett.

Our final prediction is

Ruan 41%

Rockett 25%

Ryan 17%

Brosnan 9%

Clohessy 6%

Welfare

Derek Daly 60% plus
Daniel Reid under 35%

Could a fair few spoiled here 2/3%

Campaigns & Services
Vivion Grisewood 44%
Lorcan O'Neill 56%

Looks like "the Ticket" is exploding and taking both partners in the pact down with it.

Communications
Finn McDuffie 52%
Eoghan O'Brien 47%

This one might be slipping back to McDuff, the softly softly with the criticism of the SU might have reached close to breaking point but it might not prove enough for the more slight campaign of O'Brien. This one can still go either way.

Election Day!

2010-03-11T01:49:00.000-08:00

Our near to final predictions (we do another one at close of polls)

Presidential

Rating it right now, we'd say

Ruan 39%

Rockett 23%

Ryan 19%

Brosnan 10%

Clohessy 8%

Welfare

Derek Daly 60% plus
Daniel Reid under 40%

Campaigns & Services
Vivion Grisewood 47%
Lorcan O'Neill 53%

Looks like "the Ticket" is exploding and taking both partners in the pact down with it.

Communications
Finn McDuffie 48%
Eoghan O'Brien 52%

This one might be slippy away from McDuff, the softly softly with the criticism of the SU might have reached breaking point. This one can be rescued during the course of the day though.

And finally for the day that's innit; here's part of Duran Duran!

Pre-Hustings round up

2010-03-10T06:35:00.000-08:00

To clear up a couple of inaccuracies in the coverage so far, 5 is not an unprecedented number to runf of the post of President there was a campaign in 1991 whereby 29 or so ran, now that was a campaign! This lead to changes in the rules so that you could only nominate one person and the increase in the required signatures for nomination.

President

Sharon Brosnan [weblink]
Louise Clohessy
Ruán Dillon-McLoughlin
Paddy Rockett
Nicholas Ryan

It's very hard to unseat the incumbent and given that there is an absence of revolutionary fervour around campus I suspect that Ruan will be re-elected though not by the margin of last year. We'd say he will get 40% plus of the 1st preferences and given the number of chasers none will be able to catch him. He would have to blow up at the hustings and for word of that to get around for him to lose it now.

DP/Welfare

Derek Daly [weblink]
Daniel Reid

Daly has done a reasonable job and Reid appears too much of a last minute thought. Daly by 10% or more
Education

Aoife Finnerty
As the sole nominated candidate for the position of Education Officer, Aoife Finnerty is deemed elected unopposed.

Campaigns & Services
Vivion Grisewood [weblink]
Lorcan O'Neill [weblink]

Hard to call, the previous campaigning experience of Pa O'Brien is bound to help Grisewood but I think the cycle might be turning on this one. All to play for at this stage.

Communications

Finn McDuffie [weblink]
Eoghan O'Brien [weblink]

So the McDuff sired by Breenie out of Ni Raghallaigh is running at last. I think last year was a sign that there is a non An Focal vote out there but it's hard to channel. McDuff to win more handily than Ni Raghallaigh did I suspect.

They're at it again! Elections in ULSU 2010

2010-03-09T03:30:00.001-08:00

You can get some early days run downs here at the story and here at the grapevine and if we're so inclined we might, just might attend the hustings and do the usual crucifixtion of the candidates for your enjoyment and delight. We will post an early assessment later today, but it will be the usual straw in the wind stuff.

And on election day we will post our ever popular but increasingly off kilter % predictions!

The line up as per boards.ie is

President
Sharon Brosnan [weblink]
Louise Clohessy
Ruán Dillon-McLoughlin
Paddy Rockett
Nicholas Ryan

DP/Welfare
Derek Daly [weblink]
Daniel Reid

Education
Aoife Finnerty
As the sole nominated candidate for the position of Education Officer, Aoife Finnerty is deemed elected unopposed.

Campaigns & Services
Vivion Grisewood [weblink]
Lorcan O'Neill [weblink]

Communications
Finn McDuffie [weblink]
Eoghan O'Brien [weblink]

ULSU results roundup and campaign reviews

2009-03-27T10:09:00.000-07:00

Below are the fuller count results that we have to hand, accompanied by some reviews of the campaigns and thoughts for the future. We'll update this as we go.

Communications: 2275 (30 spoiled)
David Dolphin 1080 (47.5%)
Aoife Ni Raghallaigh 1193 (52.4%)

Ni Raghallaigh elected as she exceeded the quota

Prediction result: We were quite close with this one. With regard to the campaign, someone who was up to Monday still pending an ERB meeting to be able to run a campaign pushing someone who was as close to the current office was some doing. Aoife simply had more folks on the day, and was the more established candidate and her get out the vote was more effective. There are questions to be asked about the role of sabbatical officers make contributions in hustings which are partisan in the extreme, and the continued lack of any distribution of the hustings via youtube or any other media. Don't tell us that it would reduce the any further. The holders of the office of CSO, Communications and the Presidency must take some responsibility at the abysmal turnout and poor organisation of the husts, starting late and the interventions/questioning from the sabbats themselves. Seriously the sitting CSO challenging the candidates on what they would do about the poor turnout made the irony detector in our pocket explode (well that's what we're telling herself that sticky mess is).

While we're not sure that either candidate would really have been able to do anything to reverse the decline in the independence of the paper and the failure to communicate with the student body. It is just a pity that the white flag of surrender was run up before even assuming office. It might be worth considering making the Communications office a part time non-voting sabbatical position if they are simply to be the mouthpiece of the exec rather than the students. I would imagine that we've seen the last cry of independence from An Focal for some time. And it will simply become a master/ apprentice position that will be largely in their gift of the incumbent. After all if experience writing for the paper is the prerequisite and the publication of articles is in the giving of the editor then how else will some get this much lauded "experience".

CSO: Total 2224
Darragh Bourke 383 (17.2%)
Fergal Dempsey 1278 (56.9%)
Michelle Lawlor 563 ( 25.3%)
Dempsey elected on first count as he had exceeded the quota

We got the victor and order correct but that was something of a given the fact that he had far and away the biggest campaign. We had expected a bigger showing from the others. But sometimes when the wind is at your back it is hard to avoid the big blow out.

Education: Total 2279
David Ryan 538 (18.6%) ->+61 ->599 -> +132 -> 731
Aoife Finnerty 941 (41.3%) ->+89 -> 1030 -> +233 -> 1263
Emma Kerins 487 (21.4%) ->+69 -> 556 -> (191 non-transferable)
Huw Thomas 313 (13.7%)-> (94 non-transferable)
Finnerty elected on count 3, transfers are above (HT eliminated first, EK eliminated second, AF elected as she had more votes after count 3 than DJCR)

Kerins was the one who was expected to lead the race home with a big campaign on vote day but the power of class reps was demonstrated yet again.

President: 2329
Mark Conway 268 (11.3%)
Ruan Dillon-McLoughlin 1467 (63%)
Eamonn Gardiner 594 (25.5%)
Dillon-McLoughlin elected on first count

A huge campaign and an even bigger victory. Now what to do with it. There is something to be asked in that if someone has access to huge resources and is willing to expended them where does that leave the average student?

What does the future?

Well, we're pleased to see the idea of covering the elections has finally taken off. We enjoyed the contributions though we do think the carping from one particular post was unwarranted when it was obvious that we try and mix the light-hearted with the factual where we have it. Try being that cheeky when you've had a few years and some 'experience' and a track record of predicting. Anyway, we're ugly enough to we'll take it on the chin.

Dempsey has promised big, big things. Ni Raghallaigh in large part has the fewest hostages to fortune from her campaign but if the Pulse continues in place and the finances are as tight as it seem they will be then writing could be the least of her concerns. Also if An Focal goes down the road of really just being a union mouthpiece don't be surprised at the possibility of a rival publication emerging.

*numbers in part stolen from the boards.ie line up and by eavesdropping on a silly man who recorded the announcement.

Update: In light of the disappearance of the SU forum we would like to note the following response to comments from El Ed that she was merely intervening to correct a factual inaccuracy about other SU having two papers.

"There were other factual inaccuracies that no sabbat saw fit to make a contribution on.

The question from the floor was about the amount of bias in the paper. 12 minutes into The initial response from aoife (candidate) was that as the paper was owned by the union that this meant she couldn't allow for criticism of herself (even by herself) or of her follow officers because it would impact on their ability to work together.

The point that David made in response to that, which you say you were commenting on, was that, "you only have to look at other campuses where they have two papers". And yes there are two papers on other campuses. and he said that he wanted the better quality paper in other colleges to be the standard that An Focal should aim for. "An focal should be a quality paper and it isn't." That's what he said.

He never said the SU should run two papers, or that the other SUs ran two papers. He used the fact of the existence of other quality publication on other campuses as a standard against which to compare the current version of An Focal and then he made explicit reference to the mistake between the headline and first line of the article about the elections, whereby the headline said twelve candidates and the article said eleven. I suspect and most people there believed it to be the case that your intervention was because of that direct criticism of the current paper which you're editor of.

And for the record the UCD University Observer is run by students there rather than by the SU though it was initially launched by the SU. And while it is editorially independent of the SU it does receive funding by way advertising from the SU and others much as An Focal does. But again this is irrelevant as that it not the point that was being made and is not what was said.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_University_Observer

And yep, before any asks there's audio of that portion of the hustings too."

Results

2009-03-26T16:32:00.000-07:00

Rough numbers

President

ruan 1400
Gardiner 500
Conway 260

CSO

dempsey 1200
Lawlow 500
Bourke 300

Communications
Dolphin 1080
Ni Rallahaigh 1193

Education
1st count
Finnerty 960
David James Collison Ryan 538
Kerins 489
Huw Thomas 313

Education '09

2009-03-26T02:31:00.000-07:00

This is really hard to call. We think the lads have taken themselves out of the picture by weak husts and it is down to the campaigns of the ladies and the vote drive today. And it would seem that Kerins is the best placed to drive home those votes.

Collison Ryan 17%

Finnerty 33%

Kerins 37%

Thomas 13%

CSO '09

2009-03-26T02:29:00.000-07:00

Dempsey's to lose but Lawlor will be the one making up the ground not Bourke.

Bourke 16%

Dempsey 47%

Lawler 37%

We're feeling pretty good about those numbers.

President '09

2009-03-26T02:26:00.000-07:00

A good campaign, good leaflets, posters a bit obtuse but still a big presence so it's Ruan's to lose at this stage.

Mark Conway could surprise us by breaching the 20% barrier but we think he will fall short of that.

Eamonn is coming from behind at this stage. Could he overhaul that lead, well anything is possible but we're saying no.

Conway 19%

Dillon 46%

Gardiner 35%

Dillon elected on transfers from Conway.

The Referendum

2009-03-25T12:31:00.001-07:00

So there is a vote on what fees option people like most but the options are so vague and yet so convoluted that we can't see people going for anything other than status quo though that could be because they're fans of faded denim.

Option 4 will win and probably on the first count. It's been a waste of time and effort for all concerned and is more likely to suppress voter turnout than increase it. It could be quorate (just) but that's because quorum has been reduced in recent years.

Communications '09

2009-03-25T11:47:00.000-07:00

It would be in our view not so much her candicacy but that we still reckon that the "get out the vote" could swing it for Aoife but if that aspect of her campaign is as lacklustre and...well...hesitant as both her speech and literature have been to date then she could be felled at the death by that.

This one could even come down to spoiled votes and recounts. Taking some sounds from the ether and distilling them into numbers we're predicting

Dolphin 47.8%

Ní Raghallaigh 52%

Spoiled .02 %

But there is a majority health warning on those. We'd give a plus or minus 4% to those figures. And if today is as nasty a day as it seems then it could be that voter numbers might be down and that could have a real skewing effect.

UL Hustings the slightly more tedious review.

2009-03-25T10:38:00.001-07:00

First off it was frakking cold! It started cold and got colder. We're all in favour of having events outdoors especially if it will pull in some extra passing trade (and God knows the hustings need all the help they can get) but you have to work with the conditions to and the forecast for the last few days was that the weather would be colder and more changeable this week than the last few weeks. It should have been moved indoors and frankly starting 40 minutes late is appalling. It could be like President Harrison all over again, with a newly minted sabbat catching hyothermia and having to spend the start of their term in bed with some chicken soup. Ok so Harrison died but we reckon medicine has moved on since then.

Apart from that organisational nonsense the most contentious husts were for the first and last positions of Comms and President with the Education and CSO positions not producing quite the same fireworks.

Communications: Reading a prepared speech is never a good idea and coming from a prospective communicatoins officer it is a real mark against Aoife. She spent a good portion of her time looking down at the paper and not out at the audience. Also volunteering in response to a question that the An Focal must always represent the sabbats first and foremost and not print any news or rumour of disagreement with or dissension from union policy whether from other sabbats or ordinary students was a big own goal. Is the paper to be the voice of the students or the students union? It would seem the latter in Aoife's case. Overall, it was a clear points victory for Dolphin with the biggest hits against Aoife from from herself (reading the speech and saying that the paper is about following the SU line and not about the expression of a broad diversity of opinion from across the student body) and by the intervention of the current officeholder. More on that below. Dolphin was fluid, relaxed, focused and amazingly for a seeker after office in the modern world finished his pitch well with his allotted time. Whether that performance is enough is a question for another post.

Interventions: The intervention of two sitting sabbats in the debate for communications would seem attack on of the candidates for Communications was frankly bizzarie. That one came from the sitting President to in effect castigate Dolphin for arguing that the paper should be a quality paper that is capable of having an independent editorial line from the SU was in some senses more damaging than the quite petty intervention from the current PPO. That intervention to note that the UCD Observer is not an SU run or funded paper seemed in tone to be more about the complaints about the quality of the current An Focal output than anything else.

It is not unknown for candidates to have a go or two at the incumbent. Indeed it is almost to be expected. That the current PPO couldn't refrain from intervening is at a minimum bad show and at worst incredibly partisan. We suspect it was the reference to the headline in the most recent edtion for the main article that twelve candidates are to run for office which is followed by the first paragraph stating there are eleven candidates. Sure it made for some nice entertainment for the neutrals but officeholders would be better advised to keep schtum.

As for the Presidential race, it would seem that Chance headed briefly in the direction of scaring the people, he promised murders and people being beaten to a pulp that is unless he is elected. It almost out us in mind of 1988 with us expecting to see pictures of some Willie Hortonlike figure in a hoodie robbing cars. Dillon was cool, calm and effective. Mark Conway is kinda the Mark Owen of the trio. He could have run a really good, I'm not part of the clique campaign but he's been too low key so far. So it was for Eamonn and Ruan to lose it today and neither of them did that. I would say Ruan solidfied his lead by not allowing Eamonn paint him as too inexperienced.

Overall the content of the event was better than we've seen for a few years. At least we had candidates for 80% of positions.

We'll do a rundown for where we see the candidates at present and some predictions later. Along with updating this post with comments about the Education and CSO husts.

Snap Reaction to the hustings

2009-03-25T10:15:00.000-07:00

President: Dillon looks good value at this point. Conway impressed but didn't come close to outshining the other two. We'd rate Dillon as being nicely ahead of Gardiner at this stage, it's not completely gone from Gardiner's reach but he is the one with ground to make up. We'll post %s later.

Education: A real race though the two lads are probably bringing up the rear behind the two lassies. Will depend on transfers. Will be very tight. We'd rate Emma higher but transfers will be crucial.

CSO: Looks like Dempsey is very well placed to take it (perhaps even on the 1st count) though Lawlor has shown well and could if Dempsey makes a mess of the next 24 hours overhaul him on transfers. We wouldn't bet the house on him but we might wager a small car. A vintage corgi say.

Communications: A dead heat of a race if not perhaps a slight edge to Dolphin from the hustings. Seriously a prospective communications officer (Aoife) simply reading their speech which was pretty much their manifesto out from a sheet? Dolphin did better in terms of the hust but it is questionable how much benefit there was given the partisan nature of the audience. All to play for over the next 24 hours. Tooth and claw I suspect from here on in.

And they're rounding the first bend!

2009-03-23T12:12:00.001-07:00

So after all the excitement of the nominations (well we don't get out as much as we used to) the election campaigns proper started today. Or did they? There was the feel of a phoney war about today, of people finding their feet, canvassers who looked a tad spooked, or maybe it was just a bit of hyperness, if someone asked them a question about their potentially great leader and so on. It will all settle down soon enough.

This election season much like the days of Calvin and Hobbes is just packed! We've had one solid barney which bordered on almost escalating into a legalistic bout already and we're barely in the foothills of this series of contests. They're mostly going to be the most competitive in years.

President
Mark Conway - Who? Did we miss him? Haven't seen any material so far. Or was he the yella paper lad?
Ruán Dillon McLoughlin - Christ those posters must have cost a few quid? Lovely paper like that doesn't grow on trees! Guess with the jobs market the way it is especially in construction isn't not a bad idea. Very well presented leaflets and sound solid ideas. Out of the traps early and looks a real contender.
Eamonn Gardiner - A good opening but perhaps not a great one. Looks like Eamonn is going to try and use the Big Mo' of the fees referendum to paint himself as the guardian of the working man or since we're talking about students the not-working hominid.

Chance has a real fight on his hands but he's been through enough of them. I suspect the wily old campaigner might just have enough in his arsenal to see of the young pretender but this battle will ebb and flow over the coming days. Could Mark Conway come up the middle? It will be harder for him to do so the more time that passes. He needs a big day tomorrow or he could find the gap to the big two too great to close.

DP/Welfare
No nominations as of close of business and so nominations will have to be opened again. That said we saw someone called Niamh pretending to be running for Welfare. Not sure if she was the foxy redhead but what the hey we liked what we saw!

Education
David James Collison Ryan - Christ picking a frakking name and stick to it! Who are ya Kareem Abdul Jabbar? You win some titles and then you can run about the place with 50 names, and 40 initials.
Aoife Finnerty - Looks competent, not inspirational but not too dull either. A good start.
Emma Kerins - Good material, a clear easily remembered image. Not quite setting the world on fire but that's not necessarily a bad thing to start off with.
Huw Thomas - Crushing the minister under his jackboot puts him firmly on the side of the 'aren't fee awful' campaign or maybe he is just advertising shoes? Still tying in with the fees debate (there is a debate right?) is topical and sensible. Will he ride that wave, or maybe go out with the tide!

Ok this one is going to be hard to get a handle on and we're going to avoid predictions, we may need until after the hustings to get a real feel for this contest.

Campaigns & Services
Darragh Bourke -
Fergal Dempsey - which one is the lad with the hair? We can't tell
Michelle Lawlor - Toyah Wilcox running for CSO?

If we're leaning anywhere it is towards Lawlor at this stage but it's early days yet.

Communications
David Dolphin - campaign appears delayed in kicking off which could be due to the uncertainty that was around whether it could kick off today. We expect to see a big push tomorrow.
Aoife Ni Raghallaigh - kinda lacking at this stage if you ask me but it could also be that she's holding back until tomorrow.

In the normal run of things we'd have rated Aoife from the outset as the favourite. Being as she is the insider, the one with all the connections to the existing line up and so on. So sh was the hot favourite as of 4.45pm last Friday evening but after the weekend that has just passed and the various lines of fallout that come of...what are we calling it? Clockgate? And with the rather weak campaign so far today we're very non-plussed. So we'd have been duty bound to revise our view of strong favourite early this morning and changed that rating in this race to being pretty close to neck and neck but Aoife will most likely have regrouped and recouped some ground as the day wore on. The real test for both is the next 48 hours, if one or other can establish a solid lead in the minds of student body than they could romp home on polling day. All to play for.

From all the contests we expect to see loads of bright coloured banners, capes, badges, lollipops, and with any luck naked people! Ok maybe asking for lollipops is a bit much but we can dream, we can dream.

At the next beep the ULSU elections will get underway

2009-03-22T09:38:00.000-07:00

‘Never take two clocks to sea’ is an old mariners saying. And much as we do enjoy a good election tussle here at vote Towers we are quite simply stunned at the manner in which the ULSU nominations descended into farce on Friday last with an appeal against the acceptance of a nomination by the returning officer because it had been handed in late based on reference to CCTV footage of the SU lobby area and the speaking clock.

Now our interest is purely in see the usual bloodletting that an election would lead to. But being a fan of electoral battle doesn’t mean we like to see the SU starting off this election season by eating their young.

The broad sequence of events is that the returning officer made a declaration that nominations for the sabbatical positions were closed and read out a list of those accepted. An objection against one nomination was later made, and though initially that objection was upheld it was then rescinded to allow the matter to be more thoroughly investigated. Or at least that’s one version of events and a simplistic version at that. It is hard to state anything as fact given the confused and somewhat heightened nature of the environment in the SU lobby on Friday evening.
For what it is worth, were we the individuals involved and were we to think of defending our honour we’d think about raising the following points.

The constitution is God!

First up is that the time for nomination to be accepted as per the SU constitution is 9am to 6pm, that at least seems pretty plain. Open at 9am close at 6pm, every day Monday to Friday with no time off for lunch or light snacks. That would seem to make it a pretty open and shut case when the ERB resumes its deliberations. And our expectation is that the ERB will simply rule that the 5pm deadline was merely indicative to allow the nominations to be processed in a timely manner to allow campaigning to begin and that the real constitutionally mandated deadline was 6pm. That should lead to the objection against the acceptance of the nomination being dismissed and then campaigns would simply get underway as per usual. To dilly or indeed dally much beyond say lunch time Monday would seem to suggest that the campaigns of both candidates would have to be delayed and hence unduly truncated and perhaps necessitating the postponement of the election.

If the ERB starts looking beyond the SU constitution then a number of other areas of interest arise for us. Of course all of this is mute in terms of the acceptance of the nomination if the deadline of 5pm was incorrect. However, it would be of significance come the running of the campaigns if the competence, impartiality and intervention of the ERB are seen to be called into question.

Due Process

Looking at the nomination/electoral process a mechanism doesn’t appear to explicitly exist for an appeal against someone else’s nomination. Once the Returning officer had accepted nominations there’s no system as such to unaccept them unless the returning officer themselves found out something untoward in the nomination forms. That such an objection was so readily heard by the ERB seems rather to overrule the returning officer. And the back and forth process of the objection would appear to have been made up on the spot, or least the ERB was operating without clear guidance from the constitution. The person in loci parentis (well not a parent but at least a grown-up who isn’t a student) here is the returning officer. And what should have happened was they say that they deemed the nomination to have been handed in on time and that’s that.

The returning officer

The returning officer is the one charged with accepting nominations and it is clear that his understanding at that time it was that the submission of the nomination in question was timely. Fact is the returning officer didn’t have access to the time as per the CCTV footage and so was making a regular human judgement about what the time was at that time. All this ‘time at the time’ stuff is going to get really confusing after a while but bare with us and we’ll try and be as clear as we can.

The accepting of nominations in any election is down to the returning officer. He accepted the nomination in question and we've been involved in a few elections down the years and we've never come across a situation where the authority of the returning officer in accepting a nomination has been successfully challenged. If the returning officer accepted the nomination in good faith in what he, at that point in time, deemed to be a timely manner then retrospective invalidation of that acceptance because some external source, not available to him or anyone else present, happens to indicate that it was in fact a couple of minutes later than he, the returning officer, then believed it to be is, in my view, unsafe.

Neither the returning officer nor anyone else in the lobby had access to the speaking clock and they simply went with what they knew, at that stage, to be the time. In almost all situations of this sort a decision having been made in good faith with the information available to the person at the time would be upheld.

And where does this lead us next if someone's name on the nomination form isn't precisely as on their student registration will that lead to invalidation of the acceptance? If the returning officer can’t precisely make out whether someone’s name is ‘Robert’ or ‘Rooert’ even though their ID matches to a Robert will that be cast out? Or that the blue colour pens used for signatures are different. Typically a reasonable degree of latitude is allowed up to the person in the role of returning officer as to the required degree precision in such matters.

In the normal run of things, most returning officers would have had the straight up backing of the authorities for their decision to accept the nomination. That the ERB didn't appear to just have the returning officer's back as to his decision is a little bit more interventionist that would be the normal practice. This is not to suggest the ERB was in some way acting in malice of forethought but rather that it may have acted erroneously because it deemed speed to be of the essence. There is no reason at this point to question the integrity of the members of the ERB. However, the members of the ERB have to be extra careful to not be seen to involve themselves in any way with any of the campaigns. Individual ERB members conversing in private with either camp is dangerous. Much like Caesar’s wife it is as important to be seen to be above reproach as it is to be above reproach.

ERB

It would be our view given what we know to date that the ERB acted in undue haste in ruling on the matter. A better course would have been to gather what evidence they could and which was deemed necessary and then to adjourn until the following Monday morning before making a decision. With little or no time provided for by the lack of a well documented procedure to consider the objection fully and nor to consult with the SU constitution in depth they may have simply made a mistake in upholding the objection as they did. The existence of and the access granted to CCTV footage of a public space are matters best left to the civil libertarians amongst us but given that the time as stamped on the CCTV footage was not on display in the public lobby area of the SU where the nominations were being received then it’s admissibility for consideration is problematic.

There is a suggestion doing the rounds that one particular member of the ERB may actually pre-emptively volunteered information to and advised the appellant that they could and indeed should appeal the acceptance of the nomination. This would seem to us if it did occur to breach the rules on the ERB in that no one on the ERB should be involved in any campaign. There are many fine lines between advising, volunteering, answering a simple question and actually urging someone towards a course of action. And one would hope that these rumours are without foundation.

The Appellant

And we would have to question the advice wherever it came from that the appellant should challenge the nomination of someone else on grounds such as what time was it really. No sabbatical officer would realistically want to be the George W. Bush of SU politics by assuming office on the basis of a committee ruling instead of an election.

And you‘d have to wonder (or we’d have to wonder) at what kind of SU officer the appellant would be if this is how they would react in this sort of stressful situation. It is reasonable to ascribe the appellant as the SU insider in this scenario having contributed heavily to the SU publication over the year and being on from what we understand quite friendly terms with the current incumbent. So the SU finds itself in a dispute between a regular Joe Student and one of their own and ends up siding against the regular Joe? That’s not a pretty picture for anyone to be seeing.

Times the tide.

Going beyond and we mean really beyond the mere question of what time was it. As we’re already noted the ULSU has consistently opened nominations at 9am meaning that the end time for the day should be 6pm as per the constitutional definition of the university day. But there are other temporal issues. There are no time stamps on any of the nomination forms accepted and it would seem receipts for submission were not provided to all candidates. So it is not possible to exclude the possibility that none of the other nominations were submitted within the 9am to 6pm time frame at all. Perhaps they were all handed in at 11pm the previous evening? Or at 6am on Tuesday? The tediously nitpicky could have a field day with this, and God knows we could do with a field day or two.

In evidence of the confusion that existed in the SU lobby there exists is a piece of audio which is worth listening too if only because of the inconsistent quality. We’ll link to it when it’s passed onto us. What it is does show clearly is one member of the ERB asserting that nominations were closed before then knocking on the door of the returning officer and then re-emerging and then asserting that the nominations would be closed by the returning officer in 1 minute 30 secs at 5 o’ clock and then the returning officer closes the nominations having accepted the now disputed nomination form. Remember it is the returning officer’s job to close the nominations, no one else’s.

As for the time displayed on the surveillance camera was this available to those submitting and accepting the nominations. It would appear it wasn't and the only devices in the SU lobby that had time on them are two machines off to the side and which would have been obscured by the crowds (ok half a dozen) standing in front of them which had times as of Friday evening that didn't even agree with one another. And it's not clear whether they agreed with the time on the CCTV either. And it is too late to check that now. Chain of evidence and all that malarkey.
It’s all a bit of a mess. Still it’s kind of excitement too!

We were dead wrong

2008-11-22T11:26:00.000-08:00

We got another one completely wrong, I suspect we're being fed bad intel here at the UL Vote for Moi HQ. The final result was

Gardiner 714

Healy 365

It would seem to us that Gardiner must have pushed the I'm mature and ready to rock straight away as I'm a postgrad card pretty hard. But that's just us guessing. There again he has run for this position twice before and perhaps that created a vibe around his ticket. The next question this poses is will he seek another mandate in March/April in order to get a full run at it, or will he end up risking the private sector in this cold climate? Anyway, the best of luck to all concerned.

New ULSU Education Officer will be...

2008-11-21T09:41:00.000-08:00

My divining rod tells me that with only two candidates again, (what is with education and haqving 2 candidates) this one will be close. But we've made a right bags of this before and so at some point we have to realise that the voters have their likes and dislikes and heaven help those of us to go against them. so given (a) the age dynamic and other factors (b) low turnout due to it being just the one post and also (c) the unseasonal presence of 2nd years on campus, and (d) more recent exposure during a period of not screwing things up in Welfare, we're prediction a Healy victory.

Turnout to end up around the 1500 mark. And final percentages of

Healy 56%
Gardiner 44%

Please note, we've been wrong before and will be again in all likelihood.

ULSU education officer election

2008-11-19T05:54:00.001-08:00

There is another of those interim sabbatical elections at ULSU.

Diarmuid Healy and periennal education candidate Eamon Gardiner are running, not sure of who else. Election day is Friday Nov 21st.

Please Vote for someone it is bound to help them.

Other than this we won't be covering the election as we're busy with side projects and distractions of one sort or another.

Peter Power and the Liz Bonnin Treaty

2008-05-15T15:21:00.000-07:00

We typically confine ourselves to the more parochial excitments of the goings on at UL but this post over on the Limerick Blogger stoked our interest.

I don’t know what poor Liz did to the Irish people that so many stand ready to reject her in the next few weeks. Yet the office here is abuzz with talk of how no one can understand her and if you were to sit though an evening with her that you’d by reaching for the humane killer quicker than the aspirin, that she is being foisted upon us by an unpopular government and that she is in the pay of sinister forces from overseas with ties to the US military.

Liz, oft described by Colin Murphy as the dusky one from “off the rails” and frankly the better looking one in our view was that rare thing in Irish television someone who knew how to tell a moleclear from a nucole. Yes indeed Liz has a science background. As Frank Millar said “All this and brains too”

Now, Liz like the rest of us isn’t perfect. That said in a certain light she comes pretty damn close.
So we ask that you think kindly of Liz, and maybe give you could slip her your No.1. Just on the QT mind.

In the topic of Liz, Peter Power—Limerick East TD, and recently-appointed Minister of State for Overseas Development—has written a guest post for The Limerick Blogger about her. The ‘yes’ camp has been fairly quiet up to recently, but, with the appointment of Taoiseach Cowen, it looks like that’s going to change. Given that the Treaty has already triggered so much debate in the comments here, we thought we might as well get a few more perspectives. So without further ado, here’s the re-edited text of Peter’s piece:

“Everyone knows that joining the EU was one of the best decisions our country ever made. A generation of true patriots saw that Ireland’s future was in Europe. Leaders like Seán Lemass and Paddy Hillery made sure that we didn’t join what is now the European Union in a defensive way – we joined as active and positive members. This is why it has worked so well for us, those continentals hadn't seen crafty hoors like us before. Others have sat at the margins waiting fotr someone to ask them to the dance but not us we have been at the centre, shaping a Union which has helped us and Europe as a whole to prosper.

As I travel across Limerick meeting people they often ask me ‘why da fuck are you throwing yet another European referendum and it in the middle of the Championship too?’ The answer is quite simple – the world is changing and so too must the EU. To tackle modern forces such as globalisation, climate change and cross-border crime countries cannot stand alone; and for us this means that we need an EU which has the structures, policies and procedures capable of having an impact.

This is what lies at the heart of the Lisbon Reform Treaty and this is why it is important for Ireland and for Europe that it be ratified.

The Treaty is the result of eight years of talks about talks, talks on walks, consultations and negotiations. Much of the detail of the Treaty was directly shaped during our Presidency of the European Council. Dat's right, it's our Treaty baby.

This is a good and balanced treaty as part of a calorie controlled diet which protects what works best in the Union (like people giving us loads on money) and reforms it in important ways (we're leaving the unimportant stuff 'til much later. The most significant of these changes are:

· It reforms the EU’s institutions and decision-making procedures – especially in ensuring that it can cope with the trebling of membership since we joined. we probablyt should have done something year ago when the Italians and the Greeks started to throw shapes but anything for a quite life.

· It introduces a number of changes to increase transparency and democratic oversight of the Union. Nothing too transparent mind, none of the dirty nudey stuff, only very artist transparency.

· It expands the Union’s role in peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts authorised by the United Nations.

· It ensures that the Union has a clearer voice on the world stage. And we're throwing in much improved diction especially now the bold Bertie is out of the way.

· It strengthens the Union’s power to act on major challenges such as climate change, cross-border crime and energy security. Face it vote No, and the summer is gone, kaput.

Bringing the positive message of these important changes to every community in the country is at the core of the campaign that the Fianna Fáil organisation is undertaking under the determined leadership of our new leader and Taoiseach Brian Cowen.

Ours is a positive message, but we will not be slow to counter the attacks of those who want Ireland to change its approach to Europe. During every European referendum groups have emerged which have claimed that deep conspiracies are being hatched against the people of Ireland. The most common tactic has not been to try to persuade people, but to try to confuse them.

We have no intention of standing back and letting them distort the Treaty or demonise a Union which is so important to the success of modern Ireland.

The Government is focusing all its efforts during this time of international economic uncertainty on trying to help businesses through these difficult times and the message is very clear; now more than ever we need the EU. We need it to be able to open up markets in Europe and the wider world for our companies. We need it to support our companies in finding new products to exploit these markets We need it to invest in building up our infrastructure.

This is why IBEC, the Small Firms Association and other organisations representing job creators are all supporting the Treaty.

Europe has also been central to supporting rural communities in a wide range of ways. Many bey keeping out so many poor foreigners. We are determined that this support will continue, but we have to make sure that we do nothing to damage our ability to build strong alliances with other countries.

The bottom line is that this Treaty is true to the model of a European Union (which was made by girl of 6 out of Lego) which has delivered so much for Ireland. Ireland needs the Union to be efficient and effective, and Ireland needs it to focus on meeting ever-changing modern challenges. Challenges like PowerBall and Capture the Flag.

If Europe is to remain relevant, if it is to continue to be a driver of peace and prosperity it cannot stand still. If it did stand still it would most likely be arrested by a French police officer and probably die in mysterious circumstances after a night in the cells. This is why we need reform and we need the Liz Bonnin Reform Treaty.”

Meet the new boss; same as the old boss.

2008-04-29T09:21:00.000-07:00

It seems the call for nominations or for people to be "Nominted" as the poster so helpfully put it met with a resounding response of "nul points" so it is incumbent on the incumbent. These Presi-Dental elections were apparently only for those who are Elig able, and I'm more of an Elgar man myself. It surely must be a vote of confidence that the place hasn't entirely gone to rake and ruin if the person in situ is willing to take on the position again for another year. Or alternately it is just going to take that bit longer to hide the moldy state of the place.

Still our congratulations or should that be commiserations to the "winner". And we await the convening of the special party congress on the walking cash of yesterday with keen interest.

They snuck one past us the bastards

2008-04-10T14:16:00.000-07:00

We had a sort of election for the Interim Welfare Officer. Well, we say sort of an election as the only person to step forward (or was that failed to step back with everyone else was trying to dodge this bullet) is young Diarmiud Healy.

In his own words "My name is Diarmuid, I’m 20 and I study New Media and English. I’m involved with the Poker Society, the Debating Union, the Gaming Society and the Journalism Society. I'll be taking up office as of 2pm on Wednesday, April 9th." Best of luck to him.

Now the rest of ye can push off for yourselves, we're closed until something really interesting happens. We're not sure what exactly but we're pretty sure we'll know it when we see it.

So go'on now, shoo!

More final words

2008-03-30T17:33:00.000-07:00

SU election cycles are so much shorter than in the outside world. A student generation is 4 short years. So what gets you elected one year simply won't fly a few years later, and the bread and circuses parade is from radical to competence. So with the passing of the king of the jumpers, we may be returning to the comforting bosom of dull sensibility (well, there is a Breen back in the Gray House). That is not to say the new office holder will not be radical or that the incumbent lacked competence rather that the voters when making their choice leant more to one extreme as a priority instead of the other.

As it seems the season for the giving of thanks, we would also like to thank the various contributors who chose to comment but we suspect and fear that all such contributions may really have sprung forth fromthe head of one person struggling bravely against the multiple personalities that inhabit them. While we attempt to recruit more contributors in time for the Welfare office bye election (could be problematic) and the PSA contest (well that is a month or two away so we should have time) you could try reading some guff from this bloke.

Reflections

2008-03-28T03:45:00.001-07:00

The ULVoteForMe team were shot at dawn today, below are some extracts of what they wrote before the order to fire was given. As more are found we will publish them.

It would seem that regime change was on the minds of the populous and they went for it in a big way. Turnout was quite high compared to recent trends almost equaling that of last year when there were twice the number of contests and a referendum for free beer* on offer. We suspect that this higher than expected (the SU were thinking they might run out of ballots papers) turnout who we reckon came out for Pa O'Brien is what turned the Education race. We got it wrong, so completely wrong.

* while technically the referendum was about freeing the hands of the SU with regards to the Alcohol policy free beer is what some thought it was about. Some still do think that.

Results

2008-03-27T17:24:00.000-07:00

Education a victory for O'Callaghan by 1003 to 915. Very close

President a landslide for O'Brien winning on the first count, about 1100 hundred for the winner, Collins 500 odd and Mchugh 300 or so.

More tomorrow.

Final predictions as at 19.10pm

2008-03-27T12:10:00.000-07:00

Ok, we think that this year we need to run two scenarios for each contest.

Education: We feel it moved more to Gardiner over the course of the day.

Gardiner 54%
O'Callaghan 46%

If the "not a 3rd/4th year" problem surfaces in a big way as a factor then it could be

Gardiner 60%
O'Callaghan 40%

President:

In Scenario one outlined here : The people want changes in the union but not too much. They want someone familiar who they reckon can get in day one and in this case McHugh has moved ahead of both Collins and O'Brien to lead on 1st preferences.

McHugh 36 %

O'Brien 33 %

Collins 31 %

with under 20% of Collins vote Non-Transferable so 25% + available to move and with a 60/40 split for McHugh/O'Brien we get

O'Brien 33% +10% = 43 %

McHugh 36 % + 15% = 51 %

McHugh to win.

In Scenario two outlined here: The people want major changes in the union and they want to send a message of no more business as usual. They want someone completely new who they reckon will turn it upside down and in this case O'Brien leads on 1st preferences from Collins and McHugh who are almost tied. Transfers are relatively even coming from either Collins or McHugh to the other but O'Brien's gap is much too large to be bridged.

O'Brien 38 %

McHugh 31+ %

Collins 31- %

O'Brien 38% +11% = 49 %

McHugh 31 % + 14% = 45 %

O'Brien to win.

That said if we are out by even a few % in either scenario it could all be so different.

Unsung and unwashed candidates

2008-03-27T08:39:00.000-07:00

Mike Gravel, Ron Paul and Fiachra Dempsey-Whitely, names that will live on beyond this years campaigns. We're just not sure their electoral careers will last as long.

We've had words previously with Fiachra Dempsey-Whitely and found him to be quite insightful on the main dishes of the day but quite reticent about his recommendations for dessert. Bob D. Fish has said of him "a winkle picker and the son of a winkle picker, plucks pheasants too part time."

Mid day stirrings

2008-03-27T07:14:00.000-07:00

First up big improvement on last year in terms of the promotion of the election and credit is due to all the candidates for that and the SU too. Closing on the 1000 mark as we write and while it may well be down on last year in the absence of a referendum but I think we could see top out on 1700 plus for turnout.

Education: race on the surface appears to be tightening with energetic efforts from both sides. I suspect that it will be a single digit margin but we're still calling it for Gardiner by about 8%. We do offer one word on caution in that if the "not a 3/4th year" problem resurfaces then Gardiner could win by 13% and we'll be writing a journal paper on the topic.

President: our feeling is that Pa 'Brien is ahead and if we see a big turnout (sadly big is over 15%) that would be a sign that a greater proportion of non-core union folks may make up the final total. And that would tend to favour O'Brien as the least SU connected candidate in our view. We're going to give a range of where we think the candidates are at present with the note that we could be wildly off course.

O'Brien 35 - 40 %

Collins 30 - 34 %

McHugh 28 - 32 %

Hedging our bets a bit but that's how we read it. Frankly someone shifting 30/40 votes from one pile to another could have a major influence on the outcome. And we're going to leave our prediction of the trend of transfers and a winner until later on. Another post due as polls close.

Bursting for a Husting

2008-03-26T10:09:00.000-07:00

Turnout was again down on last year. At this rate some of the candidates might not turn up in a few years time. The venue doesn't help but without doing it in such a place, there might be no one there.

Education: we're shortening the gap on this. Neither candidate looked like they were going to be careless with matches in the office. (though Eamon's reference to some people "not having full use of their minds" stumped a few). It may well be that this comes down to those who have come out for one of the Presidential candidates plumping for one of the Education candidates.

Gardiner 54% O'Callagahan 46% - 18 spoiled votes

President:

Collins - Competent, controlled, perhaps almost too at ease when speaking.

McHugh - Lit the place up a bit with some verbal flourishes but with so few in attendance will the word travel?

O'Brien - solid but not as much of an outside the union burn the Reichstager as some might have wanted

None of them will burn the scones of the SU oven. But the question is whether the student body is wanting a technocrat after two years of fluffy woolliness or a firebrand to charge the ramparts? and which of the 3 on offer suits my sweeping generalisation of what they want more? Personally my view of what is needed is a strong generalissimo type, but that's just my preference for uniforms and high knee leather boots breaking through again and none of the candidates are of the appropriate gender for it to really work for me.

After feeling the pulse of the campaign's a bit more we would rate O'Brien as having made the most progress since the campaign kicked off. There again far more people already know who Collins and McHugh are so he needed to do that. It will all come down to campaigning in the next 24 hours. It is shockingly fluid and that's a fact.

I would place O'Brien at the head of the pile at this point, with Collins 2nd and McHugh not far behind. If I was pushed I would say right now it is

O'Brien 36 % - Boxers
Collins 33 % - Boxers
McHugh 31 % - Commando

Really surprised that no one explicitly asked for No. 2's which could be crucial.

Day one - first impressions - President

2008-03-25T15:09:00.000-07:00

Collins - Pushing his involvement is all sorts of levels within the SU and Clubs and Socs. Leaflet is short and sharp. Might have been worth covering more ground but sometimes short and sweet does the trick. I know I know, some prefer it longer and with that tangy salt flavour...anyway it's competent but doesn't surprise either.

McHugh - coming back strong, the best poster and handy out thingy in terms of design by far. Not that it's just much detail. Have to get my hands on his manifesto. Though it does make it look like Paddy has gone all Agent Smith on us and everyone on campus will Paddy McHugh. If he is connecting with the populous and more especially dealing with effectively with the fallout out from JudyGate (we're open to better terms, ResignoGate, LeavyMcLurch were considered and dropped) then he could well be back in contention. Most importantly if his pitch is that "I've seen it done badly now let me do it right" then he could pull some support from both Collins and O'Brien and pip them on the first count. It's down to transfers then.

O'Brien - Good presence about the place, but some missteps haven't been corrected. That bebo page is still blinding people at twenty paces and. Not sure about the follow through on entertainment section, bigger bands! (who exactly, Shane McGowan was mentioned somewhere, does about anyone have a clue as to how much that would cost?). Good idea on OktoberFest, but will the Stables oblige? You can proactive this and actively that but it is necessary to say how will it actually happen, proactive is an adjective, manifestos need some verbs and nouns. The nitelink over exams and walking bus are two good examples of concrete things that he's proposed. More please! Not sure what he means about "provisions in the university" are underfunded when it comes to Mental Health. Also, having to add the Bebo page in hand writing indicates a lack of thoroughness in preparation. There again with the Bebo the way it looks, might be better to leave it off altogether.

I would officially rate this as a proper three horse race at this point. I would have Collins ahead but with McHugh now moving ahead of O'Brien but still all to play for as we hit the back straight.

Day one - first impressions - Education

2008-03-25T15:01:00.001-07:00

Not sure if O'Callaghan is giving us what we wanted and it all seems to fruitless. Hustings might see him rally but it looks very much uphill at this point.

One of Gardiner's poster appears to spell out something that almost sounds like Oedipal when you pronounce it, which is kinda curious don't ya think? as Marge Gunderson might say. Probably just one of those regular odd things and nothing Freudian about it at all.

We're suggesting a 60/40 win for Gardiner at this point. Hustings could see this race over before election day comes at all.

And they're off!

2008-03-24T08:33:00.001-07:00

Hardly much of an indicator of much but sure what hell we're working off vapour at the moment. As of today, looking at the campaign sites we've seen so far.

Pa O'Brien Bebo Friends count - 100

Pa O'Brien Facebook 20

Oisin Collins Bebo - 185

Oisin Collins Facebook - 99

So Collins ahead for the moment it would seem but curiously the man with no campaign page Paddy McHugh has 228 friends on Bebo though they are real Bebo friends and not fake electoral mates we're thinking.

Campaign information

2008-03-22T16:36:00.000-07:00

So far we've received these pair of sites for one of the El Pres candidates: Oisin Collins.

As for the other candidates, well, have we got the plague or something? Do our texts smell?

That said by following one of the links above we found this for Pa O'Brien. I think I may have incurred a visual impairment after looking at it and nor in a good way either.

Somewhat later on comments

2008-03-19T14:15:00.000-07:00

We've been reviewing the word back from the front. It is very much phoney war to date.

For Education, we're pushing the odds out on Shane O'Callaghan because well, we reckon we should learn from our mistake 2 years ago and take note that those not yet wetted behind the ears by the trials of Co-Op are not best favoured by the student body for elected office. Gardiner has to be a heavy favourite at this stage, unless simply not being him would be reason enough for people to vote for someone else.

Any campaigns that have a manifesto or on-line site that they would like us to link to, feel free to mail us at the address on the right.

Early comments on the election going

2008-03-15T06:55:00.000-07:00

With only two contests it could be a kinda dull election season but with the fallout from WelfareGate likely to overshadow proceedings it may be a significant improvement on last year. Remember last year's campaigns? Neither do I.

At this point with a decent degree of organisation behind him Patrick O’Brien would be our top tip, why because he’s best to be able to run an outside the SU clique campaign stupid. Oisin Collins came really close 2 years ago for CSO and in a 3 horse race his experience over the course should stand to him again. Paddy McHugh we shouldn’t forget was elected unopposed last year (though he did run a sort of shadow/information campaign even so) will be the inside the beltway SU candidate and that ultimately could be his trump card or his Achilles heel. Collins can say he’s a little bit union, a little bit not.

So our really early prediction before the candidates get their campaigns going at all, is that Patrick O’Brien would lead on the first count, followed by Collins and McHugh, and we’d suggest that Collins would be shading it over McHugh at this very early stage. McHugh would probably transfer more to Collins. But will Collins be close enough to overhaul O'Brien? So basically we’re thinking that we're starting with a 40/30+/30- % race at this stage but with plenty of room for movement.

For education, Gardiner should start with the greater advantage with his knowledge of the course and exposure from last year. However, that advantage isn’t insurmountable, especially by a strong, highly visible campaign. Will O’Callaghan give us that? I'd have Gardiner as the stronger at this stage.

ULSU crisis? Who's buying?

2008-03-14T03:36:00.000-07:00

So the resignation of the Welfare officer appears to have kicked off tremors that are widening all kinds of cracks in the SU @ UL. People are taking sides so quick they are falling over the facts in their rush to be the first to lob their particular grenade. Doors not open often enough or long enough.

Our understanding is that under Irish employment law, being a member of the SU Exec isn't meant to be some form of indentured servitude. If it isn't working out, if the environment and conditions aren't as they were made out to be all the better to go and let someone take up the burden if they are willing to do so. It is a curiosity that people often feel they can ignore a situation and adopt the attitude of ah sure what can they do? That seems to have been the way with a lot of Irish marriages down the years. A lot of employers thought the same until the mid 90s when suddenly there were "other jobs". Well now, folks can simply walk away, head to a beach for a week to chill and leave you to it.

Feeding the situation it would seem the Pres is taking a wee powder at the moment, or at least he is off the scene for a few days so the most experienced officer is in charge. Yep, Al Haig is in charge! Oddly enough with the Pres off line the real acting Pres should be the Deputy Pres. - Welfare officer, the others are all mere Vice Presidents. ULSU like vice, though not in that governor of New York kind of way which is quite the pity. There again, 4 grand a night would leave a much bigger hole in the finances here than it would to someone in elected office in the US. We're not at all clear if this powder has anything to do with the current crisis; if it preceded it or precipitated it in some way. Will we ever hear in full exactly what happened? Probably not if the forum is where you expect to get your news. Posts are being deleted with abandon, by of all people the UN peacekeepers of the PSA!

Just our tuppence (it's like 2 cents only you could scoop someone's eye out with it) worth here, but it is the role of the President to ensure a harmonious ship. El Pres is supposed to be captain of the team, head goy, first over the top, whatever. And it was noted to some of us Voters last year that perhaps the team dynamic wasn't not all it could be at the top. Oddly enough creating a Campaigns and Services Officer appears not to have had the intended impact of freeing up the Pres from organising campaigns so that he could concentrate on leading. And it would seem to many observers that this hasn't happened. Perhaps leading didn't fit so well with the desire for consensus, sometimes the bull has horns and someone needs to take it by them. If there is a bull or was it a bear?

SU officer resigns - another election in prospect?

2008-03-13T09:58:00.001-07:00

When I suggested that confusion was reigning about people's intentions I didn't realise it was as bad as all this - Resignation of the SU Welfare Officer.

I do wonder if the weather wracked Rag week might have taken its toll on events too. I'm not sure there will be a lot in the kitty for Giving.

Then this evening a letter was posted to the forum thread linked to above by the outgoing Welfare officer state her reasons for her resignation. This was then removed by the PSA President who it appears chaired an emergency Union Exec meeting March 12th yesterday. This was apparently on foot of legal reasons though it removes open to clarification at this time as to the nature of the legal advice or indeed if any was actually sought. As we've seen this sort of stuff happen before we've obtained a revised text and present it below for your own consideration.

"To the Students of the University of Limerick,

I hereby tender my resignation from the position of Deputy President and Welfare officer of the University of Limerick Students Union with effect from Friday, 14^th March 2008.

This decision was not taken lightly. There are many reasons why I feel that I must resign. The most prominent of these are as follows:

· Because I, along with one other Sabbatical Officer, were the only Union representatives that went to Galway to help search for the missing UL Student, Michael Hughes.

· Because of the problems with the boathouse – a priority issue for Clubs and Societies –

which I was not aware of until last week.

· Because, in the aftermath of the alcohol policy, I am the only officer who has been investigating and developing a Union initiative with the other stakeholders.

· Because I have not received any leadership or direction.

· Because there is no team dynamic within the Union

· Because the Union has not been adequately promoted among the student body.

· Because campaigns and events were not properly press released upon or properly publicised.

· Because the An Focal has frequently been published late rendering the information content (particularly when relating to events and campaigns) largely useless.

· Because the website will not be made accessible for students with disabilities.

· Because there was little or no assistance or support with regard to events, activities or programmes I organised.

· Because of the poor standards of governance which frustrated my attempts at efficiently completing my work.

On joining the Students Union I believed that I would be working with a team of energetic, dynamic and motivated students who wanted to make a positive difference for the students of UL. In my opinion, this is not now the case.

I ran for election for the right reasons. In my opinion I must now resign for the right reasons. I have tried to address the issues, tried to resolve them, tried to tolerate them but to no avail. If I stay in office, it is my opinion that my principles, my beliefs and my work here will be compromised.

Since taking office, I have worked hard on your behalf and done my utmost to make good on my elections promises. I would like to thank you for your support, your feedback, and the faith and responsibility that you put in me in when you voted me into this position almost one year ago.

Sincerely,

Judith Lynch

"

And while all that was going on, we actually have some new sabbatical officers elected unopposed this evening.

Deputy Pres: Welfare - Catriona 'Bubbles' McGrattan.

For PPO - Aoife Breen.

For CSO - Damien Cahill.

Well done to them all.

And we have two real live contests for

The Presidential race has three candidates; Patrick O'Brien, Oisin Collins and Paddy McHugh

Education is between Eamonn Gardener and Shane O'Callaghan.

We will post some early assessments tomorrow.

Confusion rules

2008-03-09T09:26:00.000-07:00

We have no less than 3 potential candidates who are apparently trying to decide which race to run in, Damien Cahill, Paddy McHugh and Judith Lynch are all believe to be taking soundings as to whether they should. They have until Thursday afternoon to make up their minds. I wonder if someone can register for more than one race but withdraw later from all up one race. Only a truly sneaky person would think of doing that. Since we thought of it, I guess that means we must be sneaks of some considerable truth.

Based on previous experience a multi candidate field can make the election quite unpredictable and in recent years we've had quite a proportion of the races with 4 candidates. In the end two of the candidates tend to break away during the course of the campaign and it ends up with them with the lions share of the vote and the other two find it hard to break out of their core vote.

I would have to wonder does wandering about the college during Rag week make it easier or hard to gather the necessary signatures. And will the one week gap between nominations closing and campaigning beginning in person mean that some more original means of campaigning while folks are off campus will have to be found.

Update: corrected Damien's name from Dermot. Say wasn't Damien the name of the guy in that movie with the 3 digit number and the cute puppy?

Early runners and riders

2008-03-05T06:39:00.001-08:00

El Pres :-

Oisín Collins - ran for CSO while in 2nd year and did really well for a 2nd year. Has his base grown or wilted since then?

Paddy McHugh - Making the step up from CSO, is his record his secret weapon or his achilles heel?

Patrick O'Brien - another in a longish line of out and out FFers running for Pres. Didn’t exactly provide much help to the last lad who seemed potentially capable if somewhat uninspiring. Is unlikely to be as poor as Senator Mary White would be for the big job.

PPO : -

Aoife Breen - as campaign manager for Niamh Clowry last year didn’t exactly set the word alight. More devious elements might drop dark hints that had Clowry won there might not necessarily be a vacancy this year. Chief(y) News Correspondent - the Charlie Bird of UL. Will her profile and SU credentials scare off other candidates from bothering?

CSO -

If current officerholder Patrick McHugh goes for Pres there will be an opening here but if not he will almost certainly run again. Can he be beaten? There is no Alcohol policy to focus a campaign around this time. Apparently, Damien Cahill is also a candidate

Welfare :-

There is talk that the incumbent may yet decide to continue her work. Alternately, some have suggested that she might also like a tilt at the big windmill.

Also spoke of is someone called Caitriona 'Bubbles' McGrattan. Seriously 'Bubbles'? will the rest of the Michael Jackson menagerie be campaigning?

Education :-

Eamon Gardiner - again tilting at the Education slot. Will he be Aldai Stevenson or Nixon? Or is he just an electoral tease at heart?

PSA - let's leave that for now, eh.

Back with a bang! SU Elections upcoming

2008-03-04T15:03:00.000-08:00

Sweet Jebus, it is almost election time again, and if dem Yankees think they can be grabbing the election limelight I have news for them. For $50 million they can have all the lime light and most of the lemon light too.

So much anticipation is there for SU related elections we've even heard speculation about the PSA Presidency. Which is a pretty previous to be quite honest. The primary schedule is Rag Week next week, then a week off for Holy Week then the campaigns proper get underway in week 8.

We'll be posting more later this week so remember for all your ULSU election gossip and fast breaking news there is only one place to be. Err...

Mail us now at thethroat at gmail dot com if you have any inside information you need to unburden yourself from.

We have wieners

2007-11-27T07:06:00.000-08:00

Bobby O'Connor of the none existent website (that is how to use the internet for campaigning, say you have a site and then just don't set it up)

Liz Stack, this surely has to top her time as junior camogie player.

A huge poll of loads and loads means that folks at UL might just be getting into the swing of this voting business. More unbiased information here.

Rumour of a high turnout that we first thought.

2007-11-26T10:32:00.001-08:00

800 or more, could even be close to the magic four figure mark.

UL Alumni seats

2007-11-26T03:18:00.000-08:00

After our appalling performance when it came to the internal governors you would think we would learn our lesson, but no. We're like a Duracell bunny for election predictions, you can't keep us down. Taking our lead from our previous post, we predict a total poll of 550 which is significantly up on the last election if rather pitiful when compared to the total number of Alumni which is over 40,000 now surely.

So for the UL Governing Authority elections we've got the following tarting their wares and below we've hazarded a guess at some 1st count numbers after that it is down to transfers and them things could go all over the place:

BUGLER, SUZANNE M. - ah yes, she from whom there hasn't been a peep and who hasn't done anything since being elected. Sort of a silent partner. A person addicted to quangos and being a ministerial appointee to boards and bodies. Might actually have done better had she made more of the fact that she is an outgoing govern - Prediction 33

LENNON, MARILYN - Seems like a reasonable sort and has the warmest picture. Some of the others are creepy or so small they could be aliens and we wouldn't be able to tell. Best of the ladies in our view. There again there are only 3. - Prediction 26

STACK, ELIZABETH - gives as an interest "Gaelic games –Member of Dromcollogher Camogie Club 1982-1986" I'm not sure that being a member of Camogie Club twenty years ago should really count as an interest today. She also appears to think it is some back work initiative that is aimed at providing her children with an educational leg up. - Prediction 22

CHRISTIE, KIERAN JOSEPH - wants to "raise any concerns and seek satisfactory resolution of any issues that Graduates, Staff and Students may have at Governing Authority level" dude, you're aiming to be the graduate rep, let the staff and students rely on their own elected reps. - Prediction 18

COLLINS, JAMES GERARD - has actually done some of the things he set out to do. Isn't that the sort of thing that is usual rewarded with repeat business in the real world? This being Ireland and an election being involved, it could be more of a hindrance. - Prediction 67

HALL, ANTHONY MICHAEL PETER - the guy from the Breakfast Club and the Dead Zone? Why can't we get Molly Ringwald and Ally Sheedy to run? - Prediction 21

HORAN, ALAN WILLIAM - is barely a wet week out of the place having graduated in 2005 and already he is plotting his way back in. Needs seasoning, does this one. Throw him back. - Prediction 16

O'CARROLL, SEAN ANTHONY - The peace society candidate, and apparently favours giving rights to human. Another one who is interested in representing students. Newsflash to candidates: students have representation on governing authority, it is graduates you are supposed to represent. - Prediction 25

O’CONNOR, BOBBY - another brash FFer looking to build a profile for a council nomination. Christ almighty it wouldn't have killed him to get the address of his website right in his profile document. He urges us to check him out at www.bobbbyoconnor.net but it doesn't exist and nor does the logical www.bobbyoconnor.net. Indeed perhaps it is meant to be boobyoconnor.net, but we're not risking it. If that is the level of competence we can look forward too then it could be UcL after all. - Prediction 27

O'DONOVAN, DAVID JOSEPH - eightball are running for Governing Authority? Are the college going to outsource all their events, balls and all? - Prediction 38

O'FARRELL, BRIAN - strong FF pedigree, a big wheel in debating society back in the day, used to regale people with his love for CJ Haughey. Not sure that would be vote winner any more. - Prediction 24

PETERS, DAVID - Yet more solicitors (the Law Society get to picking someone anyway so what need has anyone of more of them) wouldn't it be far better to have this David Peters or even this one?. - Prediction 34

We reckon Collins will get the man's seat again and a battle royale for the ladies' chair.

Another poor show on our part.

2007-11-18T10:28:00.000-08:00

The results are in and it seems we struck out

Academic Staff/Research Staff : 5 seats

Elected:

Dr Patricia Conlan - fantastic result topping the poll with more than 40 votes

Ms Annette McElligott - we did think/hint that this was a possibility

Dr J J Leahy - Didn't think it was possible

Dr Eoin Devereux - surprised he didn't do better with all the superstar endorsements, there again the fact that some doing endorsing couldn't vote themselves might have been more of a hindrance than anything else.

Dr Seán McGrath - we did think he was in the mix

Non-Academic Staff : 3 seats

Elected:

Mr Pat Rockett

Ms Jackie O'Shaughnessy

Mr John Fox

We're not going to say much about the above three other than were we ever wrong and rest assured that

A young lady of a suitable persuasion has been booked to administer the appropriate admonishment.

Ouch.

UL Governing Authority predictions

2007-11-14T10:01:00.000-08:00

So who do we think will get elected? Below is the current lineup

Academic Staff: (elected by such staff)	Dr Patricia Conlan Dr Alan Hegarty Dr Sean McGrath Mr Dermot Shinners-Kennedy Dr Tom Turner
Staff (Non-Academic): (elected by such staff)	Mr Seamus Dolan Mr Michael Chapman Ms Mary Finucane-Ryan

Four members of academic staff who are Professors/Associate Professors, elected by such staff;
Nominees for Super Academic Staff

Burkley, Cyril

Jane Edwards

So we have a result already! and the super folks couldn't find the necessary four to fill their slots.

Five permanent or full-time members of other academic staff/research staff elected by such staff;

Nominees for Regular Academic Staff

Conlan, Patricia - outgoing member and thus very likely to be re-elected easily, but we sense a great disturbance in the force and feel it will be an uphill struggle.

Devereux, Eoin - Christ not since Mary Lou McDonald came on the scene for the 2004 Euro's has a candidate been so touted. If he doesn't get elected beware of bike rage incidents on campus. Electronic Rules! to be elected

Leahy, JJ - not this time out.

McElligott, Annette - might sneak a 2nd seat or even the sole one for the sisterhood if Conlan is as weak as we're suspecting. to be elected

McGrath, Sean - outgoing but was co-opted rather than elected so this is first time running - fighting for the last seat

Shinners-Kennedy, Dermot - likely to be re-elected in our view - to be elected

Taylor, Ann - will poll better than some expect but I think more likely to be the wind beneath someone else's electoral wings. - fighting for the last seat

Thomas, Adrian - a familiar name but is that enough? to be elected

Walsh, Ed - is this Ed the Pres, we're looking for enough, if it is then no he won't get elected, and if not then he won't get elected either.

8 in 5 won't go. So a tight race overall in prospect here.

Three permanent or full-time employees who are not members of the academic staff, elected by the non-academic staff.

Nominees for non-academic staff

Chapman, Michael - didn't he kill John Lennon - to be elected

Finucane-Ryan, Mary - another Cuiv, Eamon O' to be elected

Fox, John - didn't Mildred take his seat?

O'Shaughnessy, Jackie -

Rockett, Pat - sounds like a name more suited to a featherweight boxer

Ryan, Jim - to be elected

Less than 2 weeks left

2007-11-10T08:48:00.000-08:00

some members of staff are being accused of laziness or just plain pandering when it comes to their election campaigns. You can get some more information about the employee candidates here though I'm inclined to think we know too much about some of them already. There again I've always being more interested in Johnny Marr's work post the Smiths.

And I have to worry about one or two of the alumni if the things that people are searching for them in google that bring here are any guide, I mean really if someone was searching the Internet for things like "Yourname X" coupled with say sherry, port or fraud you would be worried too or maybe not.

I might do some last minute predictions.

Election fever at UL

2007-10-22T06:03:00.000-07:00

OK fever is not the word, some might say that to even suggest it is much more than some sniffles accompanied by a mild temperature and some clammy palms would be an exaggeration.
Anyway, along with the Alumni elections to the governing authority there are various internal elections too, both for academic and non-academic representatives on the Governing Authority. And the various candidates are already displaying their wares to their electorate by means of the internal mail system. Sadly they still can't work out that they running for elections isn't really an event

All in all they get to pick

Four members of academic staff who are Professors/Associate Professors, elected by such staff;

Nominees for Super Academic Staff

Burkley, Cyril

Conlan, Patricia

Devereux, Eoin -

Leahy, JJ -

McElligott, Annette -

McGrath, Sean -

Shinners-Kennedy, Dermot -

Taylor, Ann -

Thomas, Adrian -

Walsh, Ed - is this Ed the Pres, surely not.

8 in 5 won't go. So a tight race in prospect here.

Three permanent or full-time employees who are not members of the academic staff, elected by the non-academic staff.

Nominees for non-academic staff

Chapman, Michael - didn't he kill John Lennon

Finucane-Ryan, Mary - another Cuiv, Eamon O'

Fox, John - didn't Mildred take his seat?

O'Shaughnessy, Jackie

Rockett, Pat - sounds like a name more suited to a featherweight boxer

Ryan, Jim

Suggestions are rife that there may be a meeting of sorts to allow the contestants air their views and present their cases but we do wonder how well attended that will be. And who really wants another lecture on how really keen Morrisey is?

Currently enrolled students have already picked their reps by virtue of who they elected to the sabbatical positions of Pres of SU and PSA (yeah like that was a consideration at the time of voting) and speaking of the future unemployed the PSA lives on due to the failure of the SU general meeting to be quorate.

Someone was asking after the count for the last UL Governing Authority Alumni elections

2007-10-18T12:32:00.001-07:00

and here it is

\count Name Elected	1^st	2^nd	3^rd	4^th	5^th	6^th	7^th	8^th	9^th	10^th
Bugler, Suzanne	31	+3 34	+2 36	+4 40	+4 44	+9 53	+8 61	+2 63	+10 73	+16 89
Burke (?)	23		+7 30	30	+3 33	+4 37		X
Cannon, Mark	68		+1 69	69	+5 74	+2 76		+4 80	+2 82
Collins, Jim	64	+7 71	+1 72	72	72	+2 74	+5 79	+2 81	+7 88	+6 94
Chr	21		X
How	21	+2 23		X
Ko	27			+4 31	+1 32	+1 33	X
Lonergan, Declan	25	+1 26	+2 28	+3 31	31	X
Mac	44	+2 46		+1 47	47		+4 51	+5 56	+1 57	X
O’Brien	12	X
O’Sullivan, Muiris	24	+1 25		25	X
Sullivan, Daniel K.	34	+3 37		+1 38	38	+3 41	+1 42	+1 43	X
W??	8	X
Non-trans ferable		-	8	10	12	11	15	23	-	35

UL PSA it go bye bye.

2007-10-17T12:12:00.000-07:00

God I suppose we should say it was good while it lasted (or should we) but it seems the PSA in UL is after closing its doors as a separate body because the job of running is sooo boooring in the view of those who have held it over the last 3/4 years. The PSA or the Postgraduates Students Association to give it its full title was set up because Post Grads at UL thought that slumming it with first years was such a drag, and you really felt dirty if you coped off with one of them and these new elect felt that they have bigger fish to fry when it came to dealing with the college institutions. Like actually being paid to bum about the place.

That's all over now as the PSA President becomes the PSA President @ ULSU.

USI seek support in the middle east by entering Da Nile

2007-10-16T09:50:00.000-07:00

This gets funnier and funnier, apparently the breakingnews failure to reference which site it was that broke the USI chain letter story has found its way into the more mainstream part of the TCM family version by means of the "Echo, Evening Echo." Mein Editor of p.ie is non too impressed.

USI have also been playing phone tag with the P.ieman himself David Cochrane most farcically with the press officer referring him to the welfare officer about the failure of USI to where the story came from and the welfare officer referring him back to the press officer.

Personally, I'm waiting for the day that ructions in the ICA break out onto P.ie

It gets worse for USI

2007-10-16T07:22:00.001-07:00

They've got a statement on their site welcoming a ballot to elect a new President but no information about how this ballot will be conducted or who can run. Feck it the LibDems have sorted out a timetable for their leadership election and it's not even been 24 hours since Menzies Campbell stood down.

I do love the legalese of "Current members of USI officer board did not write a letter appearing on a political blog site." right you are so not so current members might have written it but did current members post it to P.ie is the outstanding question? More heads could roll yet.

USI in meltdown - seeks new blood for letting.

2007-10-15T03:03:00.000-07:00

Well blow me down with a feather but there has been all sorts of craic over at USI over the course of Le weekend.

BreakingNews was a whole day late in reporting it so we feel fine about keeping our own powder dry on this though breaking news did get some of the details of who posted what when wrong but sure what does it matter. That said, it is odd that USI now finds itself with no President and apparently no means to replace him, bit of an organisational oversight that isn't it? I guess one of the existing board will step up and ask for the support of others, but we could see a complete bloodbath if more than one person is convinced they are the right and only choice. It could be more CSI than USI in the space of week.

As some have already noted there were resignations at USI , though we can't really say they were en masse as there were just the two of them but fair dues taking out the President before committing hari kari is some way for a person to go. Not that we support suicide motions or notions. Still like a Wispa in an convection oven, USI appears to be in complete freefall, meltdown, a soggy end awaits. Perhaps Ivana could step in from her role in Seanad to help them out on a part-time basis.

NUI Senate results - No go for the Quo!

2007-10-15T03:00:00.001-07:00

Usually with our limited focus we can freely go for months without feeling the need to post but the last week has been hectic. And all this working from our base in bear infested Bohemia, it is tough going I can tell ya.

Anyway, The NUI has had its Senate election and the results were as posted below and here in case you don't trust us.

The outgoing Senate members were

Angela Hoey-Heffron, BCL LLB

Caroline Hussey, BSc PhD (Dub)

Therese Madden, BSocSc MSW

Linda O'Shea Farren, BCL

All change with the ladies, with only Linda O'Shea Farren managing to hold on to her seat (some compensation for the vote leakage in the Seanad race) and two outgoing senate members defeated. So Bernardine finally gets elected to something will it sate her or egg her on? And Mary sister of the Bull managed to get elected. Seems like the plan to raise her profile worked after all.

Election Result - FEMALE Candidates	Votes	Elected/Excluded
O'SULLIVAN, Bernadine	706	ELECTED
DE BHALDRAITHE MARSH, Clíona Eilis	588	ELECTED
O SHEA FARREN, Linda	578	ELECTED
O'RIORDAN, Mary	564	ELECTED
CORCORAN, Mary	462	Excluded
MADDEN, Therese J	396	Excluded
MONAHAN, Oonagh	358	Excluded
HOEY-HEFFRON, Angela	311	Excluded
TOTAL BALLOT PAPERS	1723

As for the lads. Well those outgoing were

Maurice Manning, BA MA DLitt

Séamus Ó Cinnéide, BA MSocSc

Tommy Francis, BA

Mícheál Ó Súilleabháin, BComm BA

Election Result - MALE Candidates	Votes	Elected/Excluded
Ó COILEÁIN, Séan	787	ELECTED
MANNING, Maurice	787	ELECTED
FRANCIS, Tommy	752	ELECTED
HURLEY, John R	640	ELECTED
CAHILL, Patrick Oliver	592	Excluded
Ó CINNÉIDE , Séamus	550	Excluded
HOGAN, Martin	368	Excluded
TOTAL BALLOT PAPERS	1895

One change in the male line up with Séamus Ó Cinnéide being the one incumbent running to lose out and Martin Hogan can't be pleased with his showing either.

Yet more voting again

2007-10-10T05:40:00.001-07:00

It seems it is that time in the cycle of third level institutions that the great and the good are plucked from obscurity to oversee operations at the various colleges about the land: I've always pictured overseers in a kind of slave environment cracking whips, and taking advantage of the young ladies. Ah that's the life. Two of particular note to us are the UL and NUI elections.

So for the UL Governing Authority elections we've got the following tarting their wares:

BUGLER, SUZANNE M. - ah yes, she from whom there hasn't been a peep and who hasn't done anything since being elected. Sort of a silent partner. A person addicted to quangos and being a ministerial appointee to boards and bodies. Please avoid this one.

CHRISTIE, KIERAN JOSEPH - wants to "raise any concerns and seek satisfactory resolution of any issues that Graduates, Staff and Students may have at Governing Authority level" dude, you're aiming to be the graduate rep, let the staff and students rely on their own elected reps.

COLLINS, JAMES GERARD - has actually done some of the things he set out to do. Isn't that the sort of thing that is usual rewarded with repeat business in the real world? This being Ireland and an election being involved, it could be more of a hindrance.

HALL, ANTHONY MICHAEL PETER - the guy from the Breakfast Club and the Dead Zone? Why can't we get Molly Ringwald and Ally Sheedy to run?

HORAN, ALAN WILLIAM - is barely a wet week out of the place having graduated in 2005 and already he is plotting his way back in. Needs seasoning, does this one. Throw him back.

LENNON, MARILYN - Seems like a reasonable sort and has the warmest picture. Some of the others are creepy or so small they could be aliens and we wouldn't be able to tell. Best of the ladies in our view. There again there are only 3.

O'CARROLL, SEAN ANTHONY - The peace society candidate, and apparently favours giving rights to human. Another one who is interested in representing students. Newsflash to candidates: students have representation on governing authority, it is graduates you are supposed to represent.

O’CONNOR, BOBBY - another brash FFer looking to build a profile for a council nomination. Christ almighty it wouldn't have killed him to get the address of his website right in his profile document. He urges us to check him out at www.bobbbyoconnor.net but it doesn't exist and nor does the logical www.bobbyoconnor.net. Indeed perhaps it is meant to be boobyoconnor.net, but we're not risking it. If that is the level of competence we can look forward too then it could be UcL after all.

O'DONOVAN, DAVID JOSEPH - eightball are running for Governing Authority? Are the college going to outsource all their events, balls and all?

O'FARRELL, BRIAN - strong FF pedigree, a big wheel in debating society back in the day, used to regale people with his love for CJ Haughey. Not sure that would be vote winner any more.

PETERS, DAVID - Yet more solicitors (the Law Society get to picking someone anyway so what need has anyone of more of them) wouldn't it be far better to have this David Peters or even this one?.

STACK, ELIZABETH - gives as an interest "Gaelic games –Member of Dromcollogher Camogie Club 1982-1986" I'm not sure that being a member of Camogie Club twenty years ago should really count as an interest today. She also appears to think it is some back work initiative that is aimed at providing her children with an educational leg up.

Interestingly almost all of them are keen on extending the franchise for the Seanad to UL graduates there again why wouldn't they be.

---------

Then we have the NUI convocation (none of your base elections type activities for the Lord and Ladies at the NUI)

Starting with the Ladies

CORCORAN, Mary P., PhD
DE BHALDRAITHE-MARSH, Clíona E., BA, MA
HOEY-HEFFRON, Angela E., BCL, LLB
MADDEN, Therese J., BSocSc, DipAppSS, MSW
MONAHAN, Oonagh, BSc, MEngSc - NUI Seanad candidate
O'RIORDAN, Mary, MB BCh BAO, MPH - Christ another one
O'SHEA FARREN, Linda M. P., BCL - And one more!
O'SULLIVAN, Bernadine, BA, HDipinEd - ah feck me, is this just a rerun of the Seanad elections?

Only 7 lads up for the 4 seats here

CAHILL, Patrick Oliver BA, HDip in Ed, BL -
FRANCIS, Tommy, BA, HDip in Ed -
HOGAN, Martin, BSc -
HURLEY, John R. BA, HDipinEd -
MANNING, Maurice, BA, MA, DLitt - should be shoe in
Ó CINNÉIDE, Séamus, BA, MSocSc -
Ó COILEÁIN, Séan, BA, MA -

USI can't even organise a coup properly

2007-10-09T04:48:00.000-07:00

This popped (or should that be pooped up) on politics.ie last night and then just as mysteriously disappeared from the thread. Mupperty of the highest order but down right hilarious all the same. I would say that we don't know any of these folks from Adam (serve us right if one of the USI people is called Adam) but if this is the calibre of insurrectionist that the President of USI has to deal with then God or Cthulhu depending on your inclination help him.

MEMO

TO: RICHARD MORRISROE, PRESIDENT, USI
CC: ALL CO PRESIDENTS

Mr. President,

It is with regret that we, the undersigned, feel compelled to call for your immediate resignation as President of the Union of Students in Ireland.

Over the past several months, failings of your leadership have directly led to USI being placed in a series of untenable positions, outlined in greater detail below.

In addition to these failings, your style of leadership has led directly to a breakdown in trust at the highest levels of the Union, and you have, by your actions, contributed severely to an alienation of the Union from its constituent organisations.

We believe you are guilty of the following:

1. Failing to communicate effectively with members of the Officerboard, and instead attempting to rule Officerboard by decree, subject to your own whims. This has led to an inconsistency of goals, with USI’s aims for the year shifting on a weekly basis.

2. Failure to communicate effectively with Constituent Organisations, and failing to build a culture of trust between USI and said organisations, which has led to a breakdown in the trust that CO’s have in USI.

• By referring, for example, to the Organisation’s National Council as “stupid” in a minuted meeting.

3. Failure to effectively put USI’s case to the Government:

• By failing to put the case for an increased grant to the Minister for Education.
• By denying the existence, of the very real problem of Student Prostitution in National Media outlets and to the Minister for Education herself.

4. Bringing the Union into disrepute in the following ways:

• Failure to attend the Tara Protest march, having committed the Union to doing so, which led directly to a day of negative media coverage.
• Referring to a major local radio station as “Rude Aunts” in an officer report to National Council, - completely ignoring the potential damage to USI’s relationship with that Radio Station if that officer report were to fall into the wrong hands.
• Telling the national media that “lots of students drive their own cars because public transport is too expensive”, which led directly to media ridicule.
• Publicly criticising a member of USI Officer Board in the presence of a CO, which was devastating to Officerboard morale.

In short, we believe that you lack the necessary skills to lead a national union.

You have procrastinated all year on the major decisions, and bungled the minor ones. USI’s national directory has yet to be seen, because you failed to write your section.

You have failed to keep the team together. What started as a year filled with promise has turned into a year where instead of campaigning, USI lurches from one crisis to another. You had 6 months notice of USI’s need to change offices, and bungled the process entirely through a lack of consultation, - to the extent that for two weeks, during the busiest period of the year for COs, USI officers have to work from home.

You have failed repeatedly to consult with CO’s when requested to by members of the Officerboard, and when requested by CO’s themselves.

You have repeatedly failed to care for, and listen to the concerns of members of your Officerboard.

Mr. President, it gives none of us who sign this document any pleasure to do so. We do it out of a deep conviction that this year can only be salvaged with a change of leadership.

Therefore, we, the undersigned, formally express to you that we no longer have confidence in your leadership.

We believe that the time has come for others to consider their position. We intend to support any motion of no confidence in you proposed to National Council.

We've been usurped!

2007-09-05T11:03:00.000-07:00

Ok, actually we've entered a sort of semi-retirement as we've got other scribblings to be getting on with. Anyway, all hail for there is a new throat, long live the throat. so far, so ..well, short, shallow and superficial, there again even the deft cuts meted out so far appear to have drawn blood.

It might have made some sense in the fitrst new edition to note that it was new person while not stating who either of the people contributing are/were. Anonymity is what it is all about on the internet so why not the deadtree press too.

Also, it seems to us and we're not paying a lot of attention that the PSA person is sleep at the wheel, providing that there is a wheel, cos we're not sure about that either.

How the count really panned out.

2007-07-26T15:13:00.000-07:00

Dude were we ever wrong! We thought 35,000 for a total poll and it ended up with a valid poll of 35,989. Seems everyone outside the top six was a link in an ever descending chain down to oblivion. Doubtless some of these folks will be back. Though only God and Ronan Mullen knows why.

1) Quinn, Feargal: - Senator – 4010 – Actual 3863 Placing 3rd

Oddly enough we got the number kind of close but were off by 2 places on his standing and that is a fatal error. We’re to be shot at dawn.

2) O'Toole, Joe: - Senator and Educationalist - 3500 Actual 5412 / 1^st Ah big Joe, truly master of all the teachers and educationalists in the land.

3) Bresnihan, Valerie: - Social and Human Rights Researcher – 2500 Actual 3282 5^th She did indeed close the gap on Ryan as we thought she might but with Healy misfiring she wasn’t able to .

4) Healy, Paddy: - Immediate Past President, TUI and Lecturer: - 2300 – Actual 1393 / 8^th We seriously over estimated his appeal and the resonance of the issue of benchmarking and so on and so forth. It does seem like O’Toole is indeed the teachers’ pet until such time as he chooses to step down.

5) Ryan, Brendan: - Senator and Lecturer in Chemical Engineering – 2700 / Actual 3283 / 4^th - one off in the placing order but missed the vote number. Still we did predict that he and Bresnihan would be close.

6) O'Sullivan, Bernadine: - Secondary Teacher – 2000 – 2395 / 6^th Right placing prediction though. We could put the number actual number down to the higher turnout but fact is that Healy didn’t sufficiently penetrate her core vote. Surely a last run . Or are the ASTI willing to indulge and furthermore bankroll a vanity project forever?

7) Hillery, John Anthony: - Medical Doctor – 2100 – Actual 1734 / 7^th. We were off with the vote number but got the placing correct here to though. I reckon Dr John was more surprised than we were, all the resources of FF, PR companies and local radio gigs up and down the country and he couldn’t get much better than 5%. FF candidates have been exiled for less.

8) Price, Brendan: - Biologist, Founder: Irish Seal Sanctuary – 1700 – Actual 1289 / 10^th

While he didn’t to as well as we though, he was ahead of Hogan which we were correct about, and ahead of Garavan. Fact is that longevity can be a considerable help in this field.

9) Hogan, Martin: - Green Reform Candidate and Business Mentor – 1850 – Actual 683 / 15^th. Along with Hillery he was the big underperformer and the news of the count.

10) Mullen, Rónán: - Barrister, Teacher, Columnist. – 1500 Actual 4661 / 2^nd The big success story of the campaign, SPUC haven’t gone away you know. 200 Pro-life groups and elderly nuns up and down the country were giving him the soft soap We thought he would be well but not this well I suppose if you can rope in 200 pro-life groups spread the word. His performance and that of Maurice Gueret on the TCD panel when compared to that of Hillary and O’Connor shows the benefit of columns.

11) Garavan, Mark: - Lecturer and Sociologist – 1300 Actual / 12^th - 951, we were close on the placing.

12) MacCárthaigh, Dáithí: - Abhcóide/Barrister – 1200 – Actual 1005 / 11^th again close with the placing and not miles off on the number.

13) Kennedy, John Paul Alexander: - Software Engineer; YFG – 1400 – Actual 1303/ 9^th We were well out on the placing but the number isn’t too far off. Between himself and Hillary probably demonstrates that people aren’t interested in party political candidates just for their own sakes. However, Kennedy would have less reason to be disappointed compared to Hillary.

14) O’Shea Farren, Linda: - Solicitor and Human Rights Advocate. 1250 – 563 / 17^th Well squeezed this time out and Bresnihan appears to be the main standard bearer for the social justice/rights for humanoids

16) Sullivan, Daniel K: - Disability Activist and Software Development Researcher – 1100 Actual 372/ 19^th Ha! OK, his placing wasn’t miles off but there are dozens of miles to go when it came to the votes. There again even the denizens of WIndyMeeja thought he should be heartened by his showing.

15) Crowley, Liam: - Solicitor – 1090 – Actual 814 / 13^th not too shabby on our part re: the vote number or placement count. And not to shabby by Crowley himself either, if Hillary was off the scene he could have pushed this up to the 2,000 mark. What hey the Puck crew vote broke the 1,000 mark!

17th Lowe, Martina: - Director, GET AHEAD - 1050 – Actual 596 / 16^th While her vote wasn’t what we expected (but whose was!) she did performance better than some of the more high profile and expensive campaigns, see Hogan and Philips below.

18) Philips, Susan: - Political Analyst – 800 Actual 706 / 14^th - Wasn't exactly running a low fat campaign but she may be content enough this time, could be planning a Bresnihan like long haul up the table.

19) O’Callaghan, Bernie: - Hotelier – 500 – 305 / 21^st So as it turned out it was Oonagh that was better at garnering the regional vote from the NorthWest. May be more disappointed than he had cause to be.

20) Connolly, Mark: - Financial Services Official – 430 – Actual 120 / 24^th See we really did think the funny hat routine would play better in the sticks.

21) Brodbin, Shane: - Product Manager 400 – Actual 220 / 22^nd We were out by one place.

22) O’Riordan, Mary: - Medical Doctor - 280 votes – Actual 538, /18^th her campaign passed us by completely. Well, we are just a virtual presence and Mary was all about the real..

23) Ó Gógáin, Liam: - Engineer and Lecturer 250 votes – Actual 174, again got the placing right but not the votes. Can we claim a half credit for that?

24) Monahan, Oonagh: - Business Manager - 220 votes – Actual 327 / 20^th The real pride of the NorthWest.

Our final prediction.

2007-07-21T09:22:00.000-07:00

We've given youse the running order as we think it will be on the first count but we reckon you are looking for % so as is our tradition here at throat towers we are happy to oblige by pinning our aprons to the mast as it were.

We're going to be real lazy and guess at a total poll of 35,000. It does make the maths easier for us but we suspect the real poll might fall short of that figure. Remember, remember, these figures come with a health warning you would normally see on a ruptured tin of botulism. As people may notice (or perhaps note, some people are fierce thick) the order doesn't actually reflect the votes we've suggested people will get that is because the order is that we had posted previously and to which we still have some attachment, the votes is a reflection that in the case of some candidates we may feel that they have lost ground since we made our initial projections. So you could say we are hedging our bets.

1) Quinn, Feargal: - Senator - 4010

2) O'Toole, Joe: - Senator and Educationalist - 3500

3) Bresnihan, Valerie: - Social and Human Rights Researcher - 2500

4) Healy, Paddy: - Immediate Past President, TUI and Lecturer: - 2300

5) Ryan, Brendan: - Senator and Lecturer in Chemical Engineering - 2700

6) O'Sullivan, Bernadine: - Secondary Teacher - 2000

7) Hillery, John Anthony: - Medical Doctor - 2100

8) Price, Brendan: - Biologist, Founder: Irish Seal Sanctuary - 1700

9) Hogan, Martin: - Green Reform Candidate and Business Mentor - 1850

10) Mullen, Rónán: - Barrister, Teacher, Columnist. - 1500

11) Garavan, Mark: - Lecturer and Sociologist - 1300

12) MacCárthaigh, Dáithí: - Abhcóide/Barrister - 1200

13) Kennedy, John Paul Alexander: - Software Engineer; YFG - 1400

14) O’Shea Farren, Linda: - Solicitor and Human Rights Advocate. 1250

16) Sullivan, Daniel K: - Disability Activist and Software Development Researcher - 1100

15) Crowley, Liam: - Solicitor - 1090

17) Lowe, Martina: - Director, GET AHEAD - 1050

18) Philips, Susan: - Political Analyst - 800

19) O’Callaghan, Bernie: - Hotelier - 500

20) Connolly, Mark: - Financial Services Official - 430

21) Brodbin, Shane: - Product Manager 400

22) O’Riordan, Mary: - Medical Doctor - 280 votes

23) Ó Gógáin, Liam: - Engineer and Lecturer 250 votes

24) Monahan, Oonagh: - Business Manager - 220 votes

It is a cruel, cruel old business.

Dear Jesus Christ we completely forget Trinners!

2007-07-17T08:54:00.000-07:00

With its much smaller field and old country charm and predictability we plum forgot to do another for TCD. We expect Ivana Bacik to top the poll followed by Shane Ross

Ivana Bacik - she has to won one election right?

Shane Ross - fighting for the rights of the poor deprived private sector.

Shay Conway

Stephen Douglas

Ike Efobi

Maurice Gueret

David Hutchinson-Edgar

David Martin

Rosaleen McDonagh

David Norris

Sean O'Connor

Shane Ross

There is more information over on EI, still not as exciting as our presentation

Ivana Bacik

Click
to visit

Shay Conway

Click
to visit

Stephen Douglas

Click
to visit

Dublin 6

Ike Efobi

Maurice Gueret

David Hutchinson Edgar

Click
to visit

David Martin

Rosaleen McDonagh

Click
to visit

* David Norris

Born:
1 July 1944

Click
to visit

Dublin 1

Sean O'Connor

Click
to visit

* Shane Ross

Born:
11 July 1949

Click
to visit

Carrickmines
Dublin 18

Going soft in the middle

2007-07-17T08:12:00.000-07:00

And finally those mid-table contenders, the ones that probably won't be bothering Louis Coupland or John Rocha for an outfit suitable for Prime Time and Leopardstown. In our original assessment we thought the mid table folks would be gathered in a band located between 2,000 and 800, however we've reconsidered and believe that it will be much more bunched than that say more like 1,000, to 1,800

UEFA cup places: less than 1,800 votes and more than 1,000

Hogan, Martin: - Green Reform Candidate and Business Mentor

Nice bloke. Can't imagine he was widely impressed at Mark Garavan's late declaration. Will the presence of 3 environmentally focused candidates hinder each other, or grow the vote enough to allow one of them to challenge? I'm leaning towards the former. While he would view himself as more of a contender, with such a crowded green field and with Price having more name recognition from before. Should transfer well to Price. I suspect Garavan will transfer well enough for him to make into the final ten.

Mullen, Rónán: - Barrister, Teacher, Columnist, fights crime in a masked costume.

Was or is a columnist for Examiner or Irish Daily Mail. Some strong suggestion on p.ie and elsewhere that he is supported by the cleric wing of Irish politics and has links to FF. Was with the press office of the Dublin Diocesan Communications Office at one time too. Might split the pro-life ticket with Philips. Still the column can't hurt but too many FFers in the race. I think with transfers to come from Philips and along with the FF gene poolers below him, he should round out the last ten.

Garavan, Mark: - Lecturer and Sociologist

The Shell to Sea representative. I'll bet Dr. Cowley never thought when deciding to support him that he would be out of the Oireachtas himself when the election was being held. In many eyes neither one thing nor the other, too associated with Rossport for many people and yet not Rossport enough for those for whom Rossport is a core issue. Seems to have lost out to Price and Hogan in terms of press coverage over the course of the campaign proper.

MacCárthaigh, Dáithí: - Abhcóide/Barrister

The man who single handedly made Irish an official language of the EU. Well, if you believe him he did. Somehow I'm inclined to think some underground crowd called the "government" had a big involvement too. Ran before can’t see any reason why his vote would grow that much but he has a good lock on the Gaeilgeoir vote. Got a sizeable % of transfers from Gogain last time.

Kennedy, John Paul Alexander: - Software Engineer; Young Fine Gael
Endorsed Candidate.And the Fine Gael endorsed candidate too. Appears to take his name too seriously, I knew someone who knew a guy who can on a good day remember where he was the day someone told him that Kennedy was shot full of painkillers (which was most of the presidency or so the history books tell us). Youth is often a good thing but when the average age of the voters is more early 40s than mid 30s they would probably ask why he looks younger than the new community Garda. Still, the party sticker should give him a decent return on the first count, problem is that it may well prevent him getting transfers from the many non party people below him. One significant political consequence were he to finish outside the top half of the table and were Hillery to finish outside the top ten then it may put paid to the idea of running party proxy candidates in future. There again, I can't see that happening for either of them.

O’Shea Farren, Linda Mary Patricia: - Solicitor and Human Rights Advocate. I'm not sure who it is that spends their time argues against human rights but you must admit such a person would be taking on a sticky wicket all the same. She was Nora Owen's programme manager according to the good people at thepost.ie and has a very nice address too apparently. Viewed as Fine Gael friendly, but the presence of Kennedy could reduce her 1st count numbers. Still those numbers could come back to her if she was ahead of him or vice-versa.

Crowley, Liam: - Solicitor

The man the John "the bull" O'Donoghue voted for ahead of his own sister. He was a local election candidate for FF in Killorglin in 2004. In the absence of Dr. John Hillery would have been the main FF candidate. Will he get votes outside the Kingdom? I reckon he will outpoll his competitors for the FF vote in Munster, Connolly or Riordan and will struggle for transfers except from fellow Kerryman Sullivan if he is ahead of him.

Sullivan, Daniel K: - Disability Activist and Software Development Researcher

Simple twin focus of voting rights and disabilities might well give him an early boost, and if he were ahead of Kennedy and there was an awareness of Sullivan's own Fine Gael gene poll origins could get transfers from Kennedy, and then from O’Shea Farren. Being originally from the same town as Crowley could get him transfers from there too, and being based in Limerick now could get him Riordan's transfers too. Could actually make to the last 10 in that sort of situation. Could be an early climber if he is more attractive to transfers from those below him that those above him.

Lowe, Martina: - Director, GET AHEAD

Fact is as a southsider she should regard this running for the Seanad thing as a natural periodic activity. We thought she would poll well, but in doing so would reduce Bresnihan's 1st count total as they share a similar focus, however she hasn't made as much of a media impact over the last few weeks and . Will probably transfer substantially to Bresnihan though, with a bit of leakage to Sullivan.

Philips, Susan: Political Analyst

Portrays herself as a UCD academic but she's not actually on staff with UCD. We've been doing this for 2 years so I guess that makes us a political analyst too. She has little time for those below stairs and their uppity talk of democracy. Much too posh to canvass and a voice that not even folks from Wicklow could love. Has spent loads of cash on her literature and that makes people wary of someone appearing to want to buy the seat. This isn't the US presidency you know.

Bring up the rear

2007-07-16T09:50:00.000-07:00

We marked a few folks early on as relegation strugglers, now we're rethinking this one as the large and very spread out nature of the field may well mean that there isn't the clear divide between the ones right at the bottom and the ones in middle places positions that there were in previous years. Regional considerations and local contests may change some of this but here are our predictions at this time in descending order on the first count.

Relegation Strugglers

O’Callaghan, Bernie: - Hotelier

FFer for the west, they have too many candidates on this occasion and he will most likely be squeezed. Also, doesn't even have the North West to himself as Monahan is in Sligo. More likely he has taken the opportunity of the free postage to up his profile in advance of the 2009 Euros or even the locals.

Connolly, Mark: - Financial Services Official

Another who didn’t send literature apparently but some local media activity in Cork including piece in the Examiner should allow him to stay clear of last place. For someone in the private sector to be ignoring the advice that you have to speculate in order to accumulate is quare odd.

Brodbin, Shane: - Product Manager

An ex-DCU Union President though also a graduate of the NUI. Seems to lack a unique selling point or clear focus to his campaign. Nice but uninspiring. Perhaps he has superpowers or an underground network we are not aware of, or more likely is putting down a marker for the next race when one or more of the incumbents might be stepping aside.

O’Riordan, Mary: - Medical Doctor

If her brother didn’t vote for her, who would. No sign online or in the local press and with Hillery as the FF doctor candidate, she would seem to be squeezed out. May actually be using this election’s free postage to campaign for the Presidency the Irish Medical Council (which Hillery was until he resigned to run for this) or whatever successor organisation is coming after it. Hard to see how she would breach the 500 vote mark

Ó Gógáin, Liam: - Engineer and Lecturer

Didn’t send any literature, if the voters have never seen your name before what hope have you. He did run in 2002 though, got 191 votes. Should increase that but not by much.

Monahan, Oonagh: - Business Manager

Didn’t send any literature so hard to see how she can get a message across to the electorate. She has competition from both O'Callaghan and O'Sullivan for that North West vote. Most likely will be battling it out with Ó Gógáin for the position in paddy last.

We’re giving the honour to Monahan.

The final lineup

2007-07-12T06:22:00.000-07:00

Only just over the one week left to get that envelope with the spoiled vote in it in the post to the NUI. We were kinda hoping some brave person with bags of cash would offer to bankroll an exchange on this contest but it seem that wasn't to be.

In any event we reckon it is time for us to reveal the order of the top 8 finishers on the first count.

Sure there are plenty of more votes to be cast but we reckon we got it stone cold. Remember those in the know will recall we called the Iowa caucus for Kerry on the Friday night before. That was one of the main reasons we started posting, our water tells us things. We reckon only one person will exceed 15% on the first count and that individual is

1) Quinn, Feargal: - Senator - 16%

Viewed as under pressure from FF this time it would seem that FF have clutched Hillery a little too close to their bosoms and Quinn should retain most of his previous vote. Suggestions by some that it is time for younger blood will rally support to him too.

2) O'Toole, Joe: - Senator and Educationalist - 14%

More the divisions in the other areas keeps Joe in the top three. Also the hard targeting from the TUI and ASTI will compel many INTO voters who had thought about drifting away to come home. If there is anything for a teachers' union voter than having no teaching union Senator at all it is having a senator from a union other than their own. And he should get enough votes from outside the unions to stay ahead of the combination of Healy and O'Sullivan some of whose vote will head left for Ryan when the lower of those two is eliminated. Hey Joe just won't go.

- The rest will be quite bunched between the 13% and 8% mark. That might not bunched to you, but believe me it will seem that way to these folks.,

3) Bresnihan, Valerie: - Social and Human Rights Researcher - 12% plus

I sense that she is playing better this time amongst those who have previous supported Ryan She has had to fight to hold her 2,800 from last time with a much more crowded field but she working hard at getting loads of media attention. And it is no harm in our system to be top of the ballot

4) Healy, Paddy: - Immediate Past President, Teachers’ Union of Ireland, and Lecturer:

Being a brother of Seamus Healy who was TD for Tipperary South can't hurt with the left wing vote than Ryan has relied on. Being TUI candidate should give him a solid base and pushing the anti benchmarking line while being a new candidate gives him that boost that O'Sullivan lacks this time. Not sure if he will get enough from O'Sullivan to catch though.

5) Ryan, Brendan: - Senator and Lecturer in Chemical Engineering

His vote has proven vulnerable in the past. The presence of 3 teaching candidates and a Cork FF candidate will reduce his early numbers. He is just inside where he needs to be to pick up transfers and overhaul the ones above him Bresnihan was huge source of transfer for him last time but she will be above him this time. Ironically could be assisted in catching Healy by the transfers of FF's Connolly.

6) O'Sullivan, Bernadine: - Secondary Teacher

With the backing of a teaching union in this case the ASTI she will get least 2,000 votes. This time out she faces a challenge from Paddy Healy as the main anti benchmarking person. She would have gained a substantial TUI last time and that will be Healy's to call on now. For non teachers she is a little too teachery.

7) Hillery, John Anthony: - Medical Doctor

Getting loads of coverage but is so associated with FF at this point that were he able to rely on the FF diehards would romp home. Problem is that there are too many FF candidates who are telling the locals that the big sell means Hillery is home and hosed and that their local guy needs the help. Those transfers should find their way to him, but might also fracture enough stay local. Connolly to Ryan, Crowley (Kerry) to Sullivan, Riordan (Limerick) to Sullivan, Callaghan and Mullen to Monahan or Garavan and O'Sullivan (the west and north west is not alone awake but would like to vote for one of their own.)

8) Price, Brendan: - Biologist, Founder: Irish Seal Sanctuary

His experience over this course helps him with more competition from similar horses in Garavan and Hogan, it will probably mean he falls short again. Will get votes from Garavan and Hogan but Hillery will be getting transfers from the lower orders too. Both he and Hillery could well over haul O'Sullivan. Would that be enough for him to catch Ryan? Doubtful but possible.

Speaking of the lower orders, we will take a look at them next week, a lot of fluidity down then.

More Seanad nonsense

2007-07-05T08:35:00.001-07:00

We have more curious art work from the FF Press office in the national press today. The leader of the Irish Seppuku Society Bertie Ahern fresh from his one day only appearance at the Bernard Manning memorial tribute comedy festival found time to pose with his two favourite independents.

No you eejits, not Jackie and Bev (doesn't that sound like an 80s girl's comic merger, though Bev sounds too chavish (fancy a Bevy?) to be the name of a girl's comic. Beverly on the other hand would be a real jolly hockey sticks publication with games, free ribbons, trips to the court, holidays in windswept locales and lashings of ginger beer). Anyway those two are gene pool FF and so not real independents at all.

No, we mean the real independents, one the son of a FF President and the other the grandson of one Taoiseach and nephew of another. With pedigree they would naturally have to be independent now wouldn't they?

You know if they were a pair of lookers I suspect the readers of the papers might have forgiven FF HQ for foisting this duo of dullards on us in the morning but I can't see either of them causing stirrings in anyone's underwear closet. And don't get me started on the quartet who were in the Examiner on Saturday last. Heaven help us all.

Early Prediction Time for the NUI Seanad places 2007

2007-07-03T06:48:00.000-07:00

What with we being really lazy and liking sports and preferring short division to complicated maths we’ve decided to divide the various contenders in a format that we like to call NUI Premiership.

This would be our gross prediction or poll of polls for how things will probably pan out. Remember we've done this before and been reasonably accurate. There again, tt's not like we're Lansdowne Marketing right? We have three categories, which might be termed possible winners, respectable finishers and bringing up the rear. But we've gone with footie terms instead.

Championship’s League places: people getting close to 2,000 votes and above

1) Bresnihan, Valerie: - Social and Human Rights Researcher

She will have to fight to hold her 2,800 from last time with a much more crowded field but she is getting loads of media attention.

2) O'Sullivan, Bernadine: - Secondary Teacher

With the backing of a teaching union in this case the ASTI she will get least 2,000 votes. However, in contrast to the last election she will face a challenge from Paddy Healy this time as the main anti benchmarking person. His presence will reduce her total as will the presence of other candidates.

3) O'Toole, Joe: - Senator and Educationalist

Educationalist no less! there's posh for ya. Used to be when being a teacher was good enough for our Joe. He is the more removed from his core support in a teaching union. He was the INTO's man in the Seanad. Not too sure if he is still as tight with them as he once was. Having 3 teacher union candidates will further reduce his total on the first count, but he should still be in the top five and surely the various teachers don't hate each other that much that they won't end up transferring to each other well enough to ensure their highest placed representative does not elected . And that will still most likely be Joe.

4) Price, Brendan: - Biologist, Founder: Irish Seal Sanctuary

Experience over this course but with more competition from similar horses in Garavan and Hogan, will it hinder or help him? Should benefit from transfer from Garavan and Hogan. He may be seen as the anti-government Green candidate, which will make it interesting. Might the McKenna wing of the Green party go for the real independent environmentalist?

5) Quinn, Feargal: - Senator

Possibly under pressure from FF this time as previously FFers voted for him as they had little other option. This time in contrast they have pretty well too other many options. Also, could be hurt by the feeling that he is there a long while (not as long as the other two mind).

6) Ryan, Brendan: - Senator and Lecturer in Chemical Engineering

His vote has proven vulnerable in the past. The presence of 3 teaching candidates and a Cork FF candidate might reduce his early numbers.If he is outside the top 6 could be in danger, there again Bresnihan was huge source of transfer for him last time.

7) Healy, Paddy: - Immediate Past President, Teachers’ Union of Ireland, and Lecturer:Apparently, a brother of Seamus Healy who was TD for Tipperary South until a short while ago. The TUI candidate and similar to O’Sullivan with the explicit backing of a teaching union he should get least 2,000 votes and he is closer to the colleges where many graduates work than O’Sullivan. Doesn’t have the anti benchmarking line all to himself though. He could spring a surprise and get more on the first count than O'Sullivan and then benefit from her transfers. Would it be enough to catch O'Toole though?

8) Hillery, John Anthony: - Medical Doctor

Dr. FF or so the story goes. The man that the Taoiseach is putting his weight behind. Plenty of media coverage. It is getting him loads of media attention but the last person to get those much coverage coming from nowhere was Royston and look where it got him. If he polls well (2,500 plus) then Quinn and O’Toole could be in trouble. That said the big sell could put off the voters in this electorate. He could well bomb.

UEFA cup places: less than 2,000 votes and more than 800

Garavan, Mark: - Lecturer and Sociologist

Hogan, Martin: - Green Reform Candidate and Business Mentor

Lowe, Martina: - Director, GET AHEAD

Fact is as a southsider she should regard this running for the Seanad thing as a natural periodic activity. I suspect she will poll well, but in doing so will reduce Bresnihan's 1st count total as they share a similar focus. Will probably transfer back to Bresnihan though.

Mullen, Rónán: - Barrister, Teacher, Columnist, fights crime in a masked costume.

Was or is a columnist for Examiner or Daily Mail. Some strong suggestion on p.ie and elsewhere that he is supported by the cleric wing of Irish politics and has links to FF. Was with the press office of the Dublin Diocesan Communications Office at one time too. Might split the pro-life ticket with Philips. Still the column can't hurt but too many FFers in the race.

Crowley, Liam: - Solicitor

The man the John "the bull" O'Donoghue voted for ahead of his own sister. He was a local election candidate for FF in Killorglin in 2004. In the absence of Dr. John Hillery would have been the main FF candidate. Will he get votes outside the Kingdom? Will he outpoll his competitors for the FF vote in Munster, Connolly or Riordan? Could he end up transferring significantly to the other Killorglin linked candidate Dan Sullivan?

Philips, Susan: Political Analyst

Sullivan, Daniel K: - Disability Activist and Software Development Researcher

MacCárthaigh, Dáithí: - Abhcóide/Barrister

Relegation Strugglers

Monahan, Oonagh: - Business Manager

Didn’t send any literature so hard to see how she can get a message across to the electorate.

O’Callaghan, Bernie: - Hotelier

Ó Gógáin, Liam: - Engineer and Lecturer

Didn’t send any literature, if the voters have never seen your name before what hope have you. He did run in 2002 though, got 191 votes. Should increase that but not by much.

O’Riordan, Mary: - Medical Doctor

Brodbin, Shane: - Product Manager

An ex-DCU Union President though also a graduate of the NUI. Seems to lack a unique selling point or clear focus to his campaign. Nice but plain.

Connolly, Mark: - Financial Services Official

Didn’t send literature some local media activity in Cork might allow him to stay clear of last place. We’re giving that honour to Monahan.

The NUI Seanad 24 furlong hurdle

2007-06-28T09:35:00.000-07:00

God knows we are tired after the elections here locally but we have another election to look at and this time it's national!

The NUI 24 Furlong Hurdle is off and running and we've barely had time to read some of the form and get down to the tote before the candidates are pounding down the track.

So, without further delay let's have a gander at what we've got in front of us.

Bresnihan, Valerie: - Social and Human Rights Researcher

She's been over this ground before and did well, but the larger field this time and the focus on education by the teacher's union could pull her back into the main field. She could be transfer friendly though.

Brodbin, Shane: - Product Manager

An ex-DCU Union President though also a graduate of the NUI.

Connolly, Mark: - Financial Services Official

Loves the government and hates taxes. Could be the anti-Ryan Cork candidate.

Crowley, Liam: - Solicitor

The man the John "the bull" O'Donoghue voted for ahead of his own sister. He was a local election candidate for FF in Killorglin in 2004. In the absence of Dr. John Hillery wold have been the main FF candidate.

Garavan, Mark: - Lecturer and Sociologist

The Shell to Sea representative. I'll bet Dr. Cowley never thought when deciding to support him that he would be out of the Oireachtas himself when the election was being held.

Healy, Paddy: - Immediate Past President, Teachers’ Union of Ireland, and Lecturer

Apparently, a brother of Seamus Healy who was TD for Tipperary South until a short while ago. The TUI candidate and the first of our teaching union reps.

Hillery, John Anthony: - Medical Doctor

Dr. FF or so the story goes. The man that the Taoiseach is putting his weight behind. Plenty of media coverage.

Hogan, Martin: - Green Reform Candidate and Business Mentor

Lowe, Martina: - Director, GET AHEAD

Fact is as a southsider she should regard this as a natural thing to do. I suspect she will poll well, but in doing so reduce Bresnihan's 1st count total.

MacCárthaigh, Dáithí: - Abhcóide/Barrister

Monahan, Oonagh: - Business Manager

NUIG person, is the west awake? Well, the west isn't going to be woken by the sounds of literature dropping through their letterbox from Oonagh. She's cheap, I mean environmentally concerned and so didn't send any literature. Could just be laying down a marker for next time.

Mullen, Rónán: - Barrister, Teacher, Columnist, fights crime in masked costume.

Was or is a columnist for Examiner or Daily Mail. some suggestion on p.ie that he is supported by the cleric wing of Irish politics. Was with the press office of the Dublin Diocesan Communications Office at one time too.

O’Callaghan, Bernie: - Hotelier

Another FFer who is on the B-list for the MEP seat in Connacht/Ulster or the Whist as they call it now. Could just be there to harvest votes for Hillery from the North-West.

Ó Gógáin, Liam: - Engineer and Lecturer

Father's rights is primarily his focus or so it appears from googling. In all fairness it is a reasonable issue even if he comes across a bit too vehement (there again you would too, if you had to put up with HSE folks saying you'd be better off if you just hired a nanny).

O’Riordan, Mary: - Medical Doctor

The sister of the new Ceann Comhairle, who couldn't even bring himself to vote for her. She must have been fierce bold as a child. Might bring out a Limerick vote that could aid another candidate.

O'Sullivan, Bernadine: - Secondary Teacher

Former ASTI President who has run before and came close to unseating Brendan Ryan. Was last time her only real chance? Her campaign may well consist of saying
Benchmarking- bad ICTU - boo hiss and so on. The collected folks over on Indymeeja are none to pleased with Bernadine and her corporate donations. Sort of the regular person's leftie. Her big issue last time was benchmarking not too sure if there is enough in that this time out. Plus she has Paddy Healy to contend with on her flank.

O'Toole, Joe: - Senator and Educationalist

Educationalist no less! there's posh for ya. Used to be when being a teacher was good enough for our Joe. He is the last of the teaching union reps as he was INTO's man in the Seanad. Not too sure if he is still as tight with them as he once was.

Philips, Susan: Political Analyst

Price, Brendan: - Biologist, Founder: Irish Seal Sanctuary

Experience over this course but with more competition from similar horses in Garavan and Hogan, will it hinder or help him?

Quinn, Feargal: - Senator

Possibly under pressure from FF this time as previously FFers voted for him as they had little other option. This time in contrast they have too other many options.

Ryan, Brendan: - Senator and Lecturer in Chemical Engineering

His vote has proven vulnerable in the past. The presence of 3 teaching candidates and a Cork FF candidate might reduce his early numbers.

Sullivan, Daniel K: - Disability Activist and Software Development Researcher.

A little bit Fine Gael, a little bit independent, a little bit from Limerick, a little bit from Kerry, and sort of from Dublin. If he were to place in the middle of the field could attract transfers from Crowley (Kerry), O'Riordan (Limerick), and Kennedy(YFG).

This is how the previous races in 1989, 1993, 1997, and 2002 panned out. Given the history and the large field it would seem unlikely that any of the poll toppers will get over 15% on the first count. We reckon the three incumbents will get between 10% and 15% with perhaps two other candidates getting over 10%. The remaining 40% plus of the vote could allow someone under 10% to break from the midfield and challenge for a seat. Anyone going to the count better bring loads of popcorn.

Oh, they've rounded the first bend and in the lead is....

HustingsGate

2007-04-02T07:52:00.000-07:00

Normally, we hibernate once the elections have been held and the winners are home and housed but it all seems to be kicking off after the election.

The hustings which were held last Wednesday and they've been somewhat covered here already yet they seem to have produced a story that could run and run. The issue from the hustings that seems determined to live on is the gender based temporary exclusion of questioners at the being of the Q & A session of the candidates.

to recap: At the ULSU hustings the chairperson after all the candidates had taken their turn suggested that the first question should come from a female student as he felt that in previous years female student had been reticent about speaking. No one present appeared to have a problem with this idea, a female student duly came forward and asked her question. Then it got a bit interesting as the chairperson said he was going to carry on looking for another female questioner for the 2nd question. There was not suggestion from the chair when he might actually be satisfied that female students had been adequately afforded a chance to ask questions or indeed if there might eventually be parity. Or indeed if parity was to be required.

As there didn't appear to be any female students forthcoming at that time, a male student then took it upon himself to try and ask a question. Impertinent pup! The chair choose to rule him out of order. And indicated that as he was the chair he could conduct the meeting has he felt was appropriate.

We have subsequently learned that the student in question is on Co-op and was pressed for time in returning to work after lunch. It should be noted that the hustings were at least 10/15 minutes late in starting. This is not unusual but it can be trying for the best of us. On being denied the chance to query the prospective sabbats the student in question stormed out of the stables suggesting as he exited the door that perhaps the chair liked the sound of their own voice a little too much.

After all this excitement a thread appeared on the ULSU forum discussing the hustings generally and the gender issue in particular. One comment drew some unwanted attention and the comment was removed by the author. However, the issue didn't die there as the chair person made know his displeasure and the SU ever eager to oblige someone who has done the Union a good turn in the past promptly deleted the entire thread replacing it with a notice from El Pres we have all been naughty boys and girls now haven't we. I wonder to what extent and for how long doing the Union a good turn down the years grants a person immunity from criticism by the student body?

This notice has now prompted its own thread and we're onto what must be the 4th phase for the issue at this point.

Where will it all end?

Also, the PSA may be getting wound up shortly.

The results in tedious detail

2007-03-30T07:22:00.000-07:00

The following were the successful candidates deemed elected President: St John O' Donnabháin Deputy President/Welfare: Judith Lynch Vice-Pres / Education: Alan Higgins Vice-Pres / CSO: Patrick McHugh Vice-Pres / PPO: Seamus Ryan.

The referendum on the Alcohol Policy was passed by 2073 to 111 or 94.92% to 5.08% in favour of withdrawing from the policy.

The ass-kicking verdict for the proposal on the Alcohol Policy means the new executive can go forward into any exchanges with the university authorities with full confidence that they can tell the college to shove their policy up their jacksies.

President

The Results: Eoin Kelly 582 (27.37%) St John O' Donnabháin 1544 (72.63%)

Welfare and deputy president

The Results: Jim Heneghan 576 (27.73%) Judith Lynch 1501 (72.27%)

Education

The Result: Alan Higgins 1142 (55.09%) to Eamon Gardiner 931 (44.91%)

Publications and Publicity Officer

The Result: Niamh Clowry 892 (43.22%) Seamus Ryan 1172 (56.78%)

The position of CSO was won unopposed by Paddy McHugh. An early declaration of interest from William (Ger) Dineen for the positions didn’t materialise.

The result was Patrick McHugh – UnOpposed

Getting several hundred of your peers to come out and vote for you is an endorsement of your hard work that should never be lightly cast aside.

The sabbatical elections are done and dusted for another year. And given the tremendous lack of excitement on campus can I say thank whatever God you pray to when you find a weeping sore in a tender place. At this point we’ve only got the general election to look forward to. And big Bert’s promising us each €10,000 for one of our votes or something along those lines. That seemed to be the gist of things; I really don’t follow these matters in too much detail. Anyway onwards friends, these things don’t get read by themselves.

They fight and bite, and bite ands fight. It’s the Chiefy and Lynchy show! The elections started slow, stopped for day and didn’t get much faster. It was lacklustre, and beyond the lustre lackatude there wasn’t much glamour either. Lads, you’ve got 4 days to campaign, taking the Monday off because you had an exciting weekend is no way to go about doing this sort of thing.

Campaigns – Seriously, I know they meant well but God help us the campaigns were dull enough. I’m surprised anyone voted at all, you know maybe Alannah didn’t get that wrist injury from massage classes. If it weren’t for the referendum (note to SU, have a referendum every year even it isn’t some big issue like St. John’s hair real or out of a bottle?)

We had the usual Power Ranger line up of colour with Niamh as the Yellow ranger, Seamus as the Green ranger, Judith as the Pink ranger…hang on …word just in it was Purple with a hint of Silver and Alan as another Yellow ranger and Eamon and Jim were both in monochrome. One aspect that struck me is that year in year out many of the issue raised and promises made are the same. Now it has to occur to someone at some stage that the reason they are not solved is that they may be beyond the power of the any of the offices of the exec. For example, people frequently suggest that we can solve delays in Student Affairs by getting some Co-Op students in there. Yet year after year it doesn’t happen because no college is going be so nuts as to allow students access to confidential information about other students. I must admit to a slight weakness for one member of a particular campaign team but true to my vow of impartiality I have done them no favours in my coverage.

Hustings – Apart from Judith Lynch suggesting that when it comes to sexual health we are all pretty active on campus and Jim have a little too much detail when it came to the clinic out at the regional, it was devoid of real innuendo material. Eoin Kelly couldn’t make up his mind if the joke is on him or on us or even if there was a joke. In my own personal view, I’ve been funnier when woken at 6am with a hangover by a cold caller from an insurance company. The joke wasn’t funny, the timing was all wrong and it was told badly. And for the chair’s future considerations ladies at UL are more than able to ask questions, such as who are you again and what cheap tat shop did you buy that in? Alan told us about his record (who knew he was interested in music) and campaigned with the naked ambition (or was that a man’s rear on his posters?) of someone who might even run again for something else latter in life! Niamh was nervous, and Seamus sang about the good ole days. Jim and Eamon tried, oh how they tried. And oddly St. John was an improvement on last year.

I ask myself, and you come to think of it since you have nothing to do than read this, where was the colour, the glitz, the razzamatazz (I spelt that word in one go without using a spell checker, I’m not sure how and it worries me a little). It was a soundless campaign; no music came to be really associated with any one candidate. In future, if there are only two candidates for a position, the union should randomly select 3 other students who get €50, a photocopying card and some magic markers and told to get at least 200 each or they’re expelled. That will get them going.

Results

It could be an omen but the reign of the new exec began by a descent into darkness as the bulbs right under the count table failed. There were no huge surprises bar the turnout being as high as it was. Who know so many cared about being forced into getting sloshed off campus. The contests for PPO and Education were close enough as these things go. The campaigns appeared to be very underground with the traditional high profile canteen focus being abandoned for a wider ranging door to door effort. While the victory of Lynch over Heneghan was widely anticipated, at least it didn’t decay into a precession. The margin of victory for Mr. Eegins was strangely reminiscent of last year. And evidently most people didn’t get the joke that Eoin Kelly was trying to tell but that apparently is not unusual. St. John will relieve his true colours now that he is President for Life, mark my words.

One minor item but I suspect that even if the Alcohol Policy hadn’t been quorate that the ULSU exec could have just have chosen to withdraw from the Long Boring Good Friday Treaty since it wasn’t a referendum that approved the policy to begin with. Perhaps, what we need is a President who does not need to consult the student body to know what it is thinking. You know the sort. They should be able to look into their hearts and know that cutting open their chest with a rusty carving knife is a really, really bad idea.

ULSU Hustings - Review

2007-03-28T07:02:00.000-07:00

Well, that is an hour of my life I won't get again. (the pedantic amongst you will doubtless point out that we don't get any of the hours of our lives back again. I would beg to differ except I don't like to beg.)

One note to the chair - the ladies of UL are more than capable of asking questions if they feel the need without so called "positive discrimination". For those who weren't present the chair took it upon himself (oh the irony) that the first question should come from a lady, but then insisted that the 2nd one do as well, despite there being no lady at that point forthcoming. When a male had the temerity to try and ask a question he was ruled out of order. The upshot of this intervention was there were no male questioners from the floor. I had intended asking a question or two but frankly decided against it. The proceedings finished after less than 45 minutes with only 3 questions from the floor.

The turnout for hustings was poor, a good bit down on last year. Still more than two years ago when it was in the Red Raisins area of the canteen.

PPO

Niamh spoke first and moved to pre-empt the clubs & socs focus of Seamus's campaign. I suspect this race will be tight enough. I think she didn't make any mistakes but she didn't nail it down either. I would still rate her as being ahead but it is not slam dunk at this stage.

Seamus spoke well enough though he was referring to the good ole days a bit to much. He was strongly pushing previous experience and clubs & socs link. Will it be enough?

CSO

The great lost campaign. Excellent rabble rousing "rant" about the Alcohol policy. Should make for an interesting year ahead. He could be the key to get the turnout up to the necessary 15%. Could be Alannah's last big win and a first share in a triumph for Paddy.

Education

Alan was competent, workmanlike but kinda dull. He got a big clap from those in attendance but there again they were union heads for the most part.

Eamon is focused on teachers, and while this is a good strategy to build a base it doesn't really help you to push out into a wider audience. He doesn't provide enough to distinguish himself from Higgins in terms of what he would do that and Higgins wouldn't.

Welfare

I think Judith covered the necessary bases. And she showed is able to address most issues associated with the Welfare position. Her campaign machine is moving smoothly enough and provided she gets out her vote she should do ok.

Jim, well going into to much detail about the state of the STI clinic in the regional hospital was just too much information on the sexual health issue. Whether his or otherwise. Made some good points, but he hasn't the presence or the campaign to get elected. A shame as he seems a good bloke and has identified some real problems.

Presidency

St. John was better than last year though if people were motivated enough they might wonder how much the car parking campaign went nowhere. It is all very much steady as she goes. Not inspiring but not a disaster.

Eoin Kelly reckons that if the Alcohol referendum doesn't pass that he as President being on the board of the Stables will be able to get us "good deals". And if fees went up fourfold that he would ask them to justify. I'm not sure if he doesn't get it or simply isn't paying attention. If he ran a pure comedy campaign he could have won (after all Bob D. Fish came within 15 votes of victory against a well liked and successful President in Stephen McNamara.

To sum up.

You know when you go to a comedy club and they have an open mic night, it was like that except no one is any good. A low turnout could help Jim and Eoin with their %s if they get their base out to vote but I can't see either of them recovering at this stage. They should be able to get 20% minimum and might reach 35% but beyond that would imply a level of campaigning that I haven't seen so far.

Closest race to my mind is that for PPO, and next closest would be education. For the Welfare and Presidency you're looking at possible 2:1 margins of victory in the results.

I think turnout will be down on last year which was around the 1666 mark. The quorum figure is 15% of the student body which is somewhere around the 11,000 mark which would make a quorum of 1650 or thereabouts. With only two candidates in each race it could be hard to hit that mark. If I was asked to put money down I would say the vote will say short of last year, maybe even as low as 1200. If there were no referendum it could even have gone as low as 1,000.

There is some reference to a qualified majority in the ULSU constitution. I wonder does that imply anything about Co-Op and their absence from the college at this time. It is worth noting that the constitution of ULSU requires a 15% turnout of the whole student body for a vote to be valid while 25% + of the student body is likely to be off campus on Co-Op at any one time. I wouldn't suggest lowering the 15% requirement but lowering what is deemed the total eligible voting pool would make sense.

Some impressions at the mid point of the campaigns

2007-03-27T12:54:00.000-07:00

So a few people are out campaigning at last, and posters and leaflets are appearing here are there. Not too many people are being accosted eating meals and drinking pints. Still, it is very tame. Perhaps since all the battle are one to one it has reduced the intensity. Pity. Turnout will be down on last year, and if people don't turn out the referendum will fail! More on that latter.

El Presidente

Eoin Kelly, it is unclear if this person is the same one from one minute to the next. Is this mean to be a seriously funny campaign or a funnily serious one? As regards the humour of the campaign I got to admit that I've been funny when woken from a hangover at 6am by a cold caller selling insurance.

St John O' Donnabháin, what can we say? One year on and he is running FF type a lot done more to do campaign. Minor note, but the Great Race and Rafts on the Shannon are not new ideas at UL. I guess that he has managed to keep nuclear weapons off campus! Just ignore the reactor in the quad, it's too small to do more than take out block B/C. St. John was at one time a regular contributor to indymedia that basiton of the Irish free left press. You can read some of his writings through the link above.

The Voter's Verdict? Hard to see how anything beyond a solid victory for St. John. It might narrow after hustings. But St. John want to throw it away, and Eoin would want to be brilliant.

Prediction
St. John 73%
Eoin Kelly 27%

Welfare

Judith Lynch is running as the pink/purple with silver hint this year. The pictures are everywhere and there is a bit of content too. Covering loads of ground. That said neither of the welfare candidates are rocking my world at this point.

Jim Heneghan, strangely his A4 leaflets have what appears to be an image of Eamon Gardiner. They're black and white and nice enough in their way but it is a campaign that could be overwhelmed in the Lynch onslaught.

Prediction
Lynch 62%
Heneghan 38%

Education

Alan Higgins is this years Mr. Yellow. I'm not sure what the message of posters with an arse on them is meant to be. And that photo (of the face, not the rear) reminds of those politicians who use an image of themselves from before their hairline went north and the grey moved in for good.

Eamon Gardiner is the second of the black and white literature candidates. He is pushing teacher angle and it has to be admitted of all the groups on campus the teachers are one of the few remaining cohesive ones. Still, to this point he hasn't shown how he would be much different.

Prediction
Higgins 58%
Gardiner 42%

PPO

Niamh has finally got up and running and she is this years Ms. Yellow. I haven't seen too much of the literature bar a faux An Focal or An Docal at the desk. Perhaps people are hoarding. Her team seems to be covering more ground and her presentation is good but I'm not seeing as much substance as in the Ryan campaign.

Seamus Ryan's leaflet has a lot of content. He seems intent on upping the clubs and socs aspect of An Focal though it is hard to see why the paper needs to be full of stories of what Rita and Bob did on their weekend away. Sure if it is about a club winning or participating in something, just going on that lash isn't really worth reading about. Don't Heat and the Weekend Leader cover that stuff well enough?

Prediction
Niamh Clowry 54%
Seamus Ryan 46%

Initial predictions

2007-03-26T12:24:00.000-07:00

Kinda of disappointed so far with the lacklustre nature of the campaigns. Below are our initial impression. Predictions are subject to change as things evolve over the coming days.

El Pres

I got to go with St.John at the moment, not visibility of a campaign from Eoin Kelly and complete misstep with his youtubery. St. J would be wrong to try and coast from here but while there may be some disenchantment out there, it is hard to see Kelly tapping into it.

Deputy Pres - Welfare

Judith has posters up and she is off towards the first bend in the track. No sign of Jim even at that starting blocks.

Vice-Pres - CSO

Paddy, paddy!

Vice-Pres - PPO

Seamus Ryan is off and running and there appeared to be no sign of Niamh. Could be down to getting the old FYP out of the way. While understandable it still means Ryan has been marking out mind space. The idea that the publications position is somehow a female only role has taken hold in UL, I'm not sure but

Vice-Pres - Education

No sign of campaigns from either, have to go with favouring Higgins at this point, but by no means is it a certainty. Gardiner needs a big idea and so far seems to be just more of the same.

It aint right and it aint funny.

2007-03-26T09:07:00.000-07:00

It appears that Eoin Kelly has decide to go offside very early in the race and tackle the man not the ball.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pXZR9NWjs8

The video which says nothing positive about Kelly himself, appears to be a long list reason to painful campaign slogans that Martin Cullen would have passed on. A sign of desperation this early?

I'm pretty sure that socs aren't might to explicitly engage in a campaign. By which I mean having a meeting and decide that Such-n-Such Soc is voting and lending its support to X. After all this clip is a UL Laugh Soc clip.

The horses are on the track, well one or two of them

2007-03-26T07:26:00.000-07:00

I'd like to say "and they're off" in a Murray Walkeresque tone but in all honesty they just aren't. Some of the candidataes are still milling about the paddocks while other haven't even gotten out of their horse boxes as yet.

On doing my rounds I've seen a good number of posters for Judith and Seamus, and one or two for St. J. That said the posters don't tell us much. The Sun appears to making an appearance from behind St.J not sure what that is might be suggestive of, and Seamus has that faded out look that could mean anything. Judith is in full colour! and again is working the pink angle which played so well for Dee last year. Seems to be working in the shop too. Taking your money while asking for votes is a bit of a sly one though isn't it?

Little sign of web being used by the candidates as yet in contrast to last year when the 3 PPO candidates had a web presence. Rumours of co-op students being employed to prowl bebo pages can't be completely discounted at this stage.

At this point, I have to wonder about the substance of the challenges that are being thrown down. It may all kick off tomorrow but limiting yourself to a three day campaign allows others to steal a march on their opponents. It is all about the big Mo' and frankly is it hard to see where a recovery for Niamh or Captain Jim is going to come from. They have to hit back and hit big tomorrow, if they aren't to be left on the grid.

You can see what we thought at this stage last year.

Runners and riders - elections2007

2007-03-22T12:34:00.000-07:00

We'll post poll %s on Monday when we've had a chance to review the campaigns

President:

St John Ó Donnabháin

Eoin Kelly

Early opinion would be that this should be a cakewalk for El Pres. One fly in the ointment might be that some might feel that we've not had much in the way of campaign activitism which many thought they were getting the kick off of the Campbell's campaign not withstanding. We'll post % on Monday when we've had a cahc

Welfare:

Judith Lynch - a strong clubs and socs background

Jim Heneghan - is this the Frisbee dude?

This could be a close one with both candidates having bases in the world of clubs and socs.

PPO:

Niamh Clowry

Séamus Ryan

More in house contestants from An Focal.

CSO:

Elected unopposed - Patrick McHugh

Can't help but feel we all missed out on a truly great election campaign

Education

Alan Higgins

Eamon Gardiner

Hard to see how any incumbent can be defeated but one potential weakness in college environments is that for a SU officer that many of their mates will not be around any more while the challenger will have contemporaries all over the place. It evens things up a bit but still the incumbent has to be favoured to win out.