Kerry North – West Limerick or the Earl of Desmond revival Constituency

Current Seat allocation 3 seater - FF 1 SF 1 FG 1

Vote % in 2007

FF 31 FG 32 SF 20% Lab 11 Grn 2 Indo 3%

Candidates Declared to date

Tom McEllistrim

Jimmy Deenihan

John Sheahan

Arthur Spring

Tom Donovan

Martin Ferris

Mary Fitzgibbon

Sam Locke

John McKenna

Bridget O'Brien

Mick Reidy

We expect Martin Ferris to top the poll here as we suspect that FG are in the process of pulling a very sly one altogether. Most polls local and extrapolations of national polls applied locally have Jimmy Deenihan on 30% and more with his running mate on the mid single figures around 5/7% but where local polls go badly wrong is where a candidate has a disproportionate amount of the vote in a couple of areas FG got 52% in the Rathkeale LEA and got 3 out of 4 seats in 2009. Cllr Sheahan doubled his own vote

So instead of FG getting one guy elected with 32% and the other bloke getting 7%, what if they could manage it better so that one got 20% while the other got 15% (allowing for some losses in the management effort) and where this to place the 2nd FG ahead of either an underperforming Labour candidate or imploding FF candidate it might just be possible for the 2nd FGer to get the transferred needed to overhaul either the FFer or the Labour candidate (depending on which of the scenarios happened). Is it likely? Not really but it is plausible and suggests why FG is running two here: the aim is to be able to take best advantage if either scenario comes about. More so as it locks up the locally inclined West Limerick vote so that the others don’t have free access to it while not putting Deenihan’s seat in any real jeopardy.

Vote prediction FF 16% FG 38% Sf 24% Lab 20% Independent 2%

Seat Prediction Lab 1 SF 1 FG 1 – but if Spring underperforms or McE completely blows up don’t be astounded to see it end up as FG 2 SF 1