Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Carlow Kilkenny

Current seat Allocation 5 seats FF 3 FG 1 Grn 1

Candidates declared to date

Bobby Aylward

John McGuinness

Cllr Jennifer Murnane O'Connor

Cllr Patrick Deering

Phil Hogan

Sen John Paul Phelan

Cllr Ann Phelan

Cllr Des Hurley

Mary White

Kathleen Funchion

Cllr John Cassin

Johnny Couchman

John Dalton

Stephen Kelly

Raemie Leahy

Conor Mac Liam

David Murphy

John O'Hara

Noel Walsh

SF with two candidates appears to be more focused on raising profiles in advance of the next local elections than anything else. While Labour might have made a mistake running two again it will probably pay off this time with the increase in the national vote and the likelihood that they will be the more transfer attractive to the less party aligned neutrals.

Our prediction is for FF to come in with 24% of the vote, FG 38%, Labour 18%, SF 7%, Greens 4%, Indo 2%. We will post individual candidate predictions later on when we’ve had more coffee and if we can keep the breakfast down.

Seat Prediction FF 1 FG3 Lab 1

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