NUI Seanad Donkey Derby 2011

Why, why are they making us do this again? I had thought we were all elected out at this stage but my morning radio listening was spoiled last Thursday when I ended up with 2 whole hours of Seanad hopefuls or the hopeless might be more accurate. So what do we make of them?

CANNING, Thomas Paul Gabriel, Civil Engineer
The very civil engineer who believes that Engineers built this country, on rock and roll!

COWLEY, Matthias Walter, Teacher
Seems to have stalled in flight. We presume he is still running but no evidence that we can see.

COYLE, James, Smurfit Business School Graduate, Chartered Accountant , Entrepreneur
Plans to move to close to the Oireachtas so that he doesn’t have to commute. Ran in DSE in the general election and was outpolled not alone by the darling of the blogs Dylan Haskins but by someone who merely comments on blogs from time to time.

CROWN, John, Consultant Doctor
A big wheel and though one wonders where he will find the time, he could well be in pole positions to take the vacant seat.

DOORLEY, James, Assistant Director, National Youth Council of Ireland
Hard to pick from the 2 Labourites – Doorley appears to running a larger ground campaign while O’Connell has made more of a national profile in the last few weeks.

HEALY, Paddy, Former President, Teachers Union of Ireland
Ah, Paddy. The man who will save us from Thatcher, she is nearly dead at this stage. His vote will hardly shift much from the last time he ran. About 3 or 4%

KELLEHER, Declan, Principal Teacher
Lacks Joe O’Toole easy way but not his INTO vote base, does sort of over reach with claims that he (and not Fintan O’Toole or anyone else) was the leader of the public sector marches. Probably starts with 3,000 votes in the bag after that he has to apply outside of his union base, harder to do that one might imagine

KENNEDY, John Paul Alexander, Software Engineer
Did respectably last time out but it would seem likely this time to be out shone by his party colleague who is just below him on the ballot paper. Still some degree of name recognition should keep him closer to the 4 figure mark than might otherwise be the case.

KEOGH, Helen, Chief Executive World Vision Ireland, Chairperson of Dóchas
The highest profile FGer going into it, and with appearances on Vincent Browne and the like has the highest profile during it too. Hard to see that translating into
more than 2,000 votes though given the very splintered nature of the race.

LANGAN, Mick, Tourism Promoter, Guide and Photographer
Didn’t sent a leaflet which saved us 47,000 grand in postage apparently, and himself a few grand in leaflets.

LYNAM, Paul, Higher Education Representative
The younger of the two FF inclined candidates, barely out of short trousers. Will be more recently in the memory of recent graduates of UCD at least but most of them aren’t on the register. Has actually been out canvassing though

MCCURTIN, David Thomas , Primary School Teacher
The other primary school teacher might get a southern INTO vote, but it is likely to transfer back to Kelleher and the other teachers.

MOLLOY, Michael Sean “Mick”, Medical Doctor
Former IMO president, likely to ensure that the medical vote comes out in force. Much of that will simply transfer to John Crown after that though.

MOONEY, Peter, Freelance Radio Producer
Good media connections and packaging himself as Brendan Ryan 2.0

MULLEN, Rónán, Senator and Lecturer
Not the dark horse he was last time, still likely to poll close to what he got last time but transfers might prove much harder to get. Of the two incumbents the more likely faller but even with a collapse in his 1st preference vote would be starting well in the hunt.

Ó BROIN, Eoin, Policy Analyst
The SF candidate. Bright, acticulate, but irrelevant as people who like SF will vote for him anyway and those who don’t simply won’t. Harsh but thems the breaks. Should get 2/3% mind but not likely to trouble a seat.

O BROLCHÁIN, Niall, Senator
Ah the Greens, can’t see him outpolling Brendan Price who will be able to call home the real environmental people this time.

Ó CADHLA, Diarmaid Seán, Fear Gnó
So we need to retain all our TDs, not look to have stronger Oireachtas committees, or have a direct petition system from the citizenry and this in the name of more direct democracy?

O’CONNELL, Donncha, Lecturer
The other of the Labourties – possible for one or the other of them could make it home if they transfer decently to one another but if they don’t it could be a seat they left behind. There should be enough votes between what Brendan Ryan and Valerie Bresnihan got previously to elect one of them, but with both running they might have wasted the chance.

O’CONNOR, Regina Mary, Political and Legal Advisor, European Parliament
So this time FF are running as their proxy a European expert who has apparently discovered that there are billions of euro in the EU! Who knew?

O’DONNELL, Francis Martin, Diplomat, Retired UN Representative.
This is the man with the extensive Wikipedia entry. Knight protector of this and honourable mention for that, he has nursed Ukraine towards democracy (and look how that has worked out!) and he can do the same for us. If only we would elect him and then he can come home. Can he not afford the price of the air fare otherwise?

O’DONOGHUE, James, Scientist
Limerick based science bloke. (is it something in the water in Limerick, the next candidate claims Limerick lineage too)

O’SHEA FARREN, Linda, Solicitor, Disability Rights Advocate and Member-Nominated Independent Director of EBS
We’re really not sure if having the membership of the board of a financial institution against your name in an election is the wisest move in the current climate even if the EBS appears to be the least badly run of the lot. I half expect to see a campaign endorsement from Hilary Clinton emerge at some stage. Makes the point repeatedly that she is a woman and that few women have been elected, rather ignores the fact that there is nothing to stop them running in this particular race and if they don’t run they can’t get elected.

O’SULLIVAN, Bernadine, Teacher and Pensions Campaigner
Isn’t the bold Bernadine not tired of this yet? Is there no one else in the ASTI who is willing to run or are they scared of crossing her if they throw shapes at contesting the race?

PRICE, Brendan Mary, Biologist, Director, Irish Seal Sanctuary
He should be able about to recoup the environmental vote after the interventions of Martin Hogan and Garavan last time cut into his base.

QUINN, Feargal, Senator
He should be safe unless enough people think he is so safe that they decide to lend their votes in such numbers that he can’t overhaul the rest of the field. That’s highly unlikely

SULLIVAN, Daniel Kevin, Software Professional
Another of the return offenders, there might be 3,000 votes between the 3 FGers.

There might even have been enough votes

Likely order of placements at this stage?
1) Quinn

2) Mullen

3) Crown

4) Kelleher

5) Mooney

6) Doorley

7) O’Connell

8) O’Sullivan

9) Price

10) Healy

11) Keogh

12) Who cares?

Wexford

Current Seat allocation 5 seater FF2 FG 2 Lab 1

2007 result FF 42.19% FG 31.56% Lab 13.77% PD 3.15% Green 1.17% SF 7.39% Independents 0.78%

John Browne
Seán Connick
Michael D'Arcy
Paul Kehoe
Liam Twomey*
Pat Cody
Brendan Howlin
Danny Forde
Anthony Kelly
Seamus O'Brien
Ruairí de Valera
John Dwyer
Siobhán Roseingrave
Mick Wallace

FF will be fight tooth and claw to retain their seat and in a 5 seater you would expect them to, but their problem could be that the transfer rate between their two candidates might be that poor that their haul vote would suggest might not materialise.

Labour do not have a great history of managing their vote especially where they have a big candidate out in front. The slew of independents will mean lots of people on a few hundred votes and it will be where these votes trend towards that will determine who gets the final seats. FG will get 2 and Labour 1 but after that I suspect FF could lose out big time and end up with too even a split in their vote tally.

Prediction 18.19% FG 41.56% Lab 21.77% Green 0.31% SF 11.39% Independents 6.78%

FG 3 Lab 1 SF 1

Wicklow

Current Allocation FF 2 FG 2 Lab 1

Dick Roche

Pat Fitzgerald

Andrew Doyle

Billy Timmins

Simon Harris

Anne Ferris

Tom Fortune

Conal Kavanagh

Niall Byrne

John Brady

Joe Behan

Kevin Carroll

Thomas Clarke

Peter Dempsey

Stephen Donnelly

Eugene Finnegan

Anthony Fitzgerald

Pat Kavanagh

Charlie Keddy

Nicky Kelly

Donal Kiernan

Gerry Kinsella

Michael Mulvihill

Jim Tallon

Jaysus, that's a list and a half. We just can't see FF getting a 2nd seat and Nicky Kelly running as an independent would seem to be aimed more at scuppering Labour’s chances of a gain or even of retaining their seat than anything else so they’re not getting a 2nd either. Behan should probably have done enough to distance himself from FF but you never know it might all have been in vain.

Predicted % Result FF 18.05 FG 33.15 Lab 17.73 SF 8.98 Greens 3.38 Inds 18.70
Seat Prediction is FF 1, FG 2 Lab 1, Ind FF1

Carlow Kilkenny

Current seat Allocation 5 seats FF 3 FG 1 Grn 1

Candidates declared to date

Bobby Aylward

John McGuinness

Cllr Jennifer Murnane O'Connor

Cllr Patrick Deering

Phil Hogan

Sen John Paul Phelan

Cllr Ann Phelan

Cllr Des Hurley

Mary White

Kathleen Funchion

Cllr John Cassin

Johnny Couchman

John Dalton

Stephen Kelly

Raemie Leahy

Conor Mac Liam

David Murphy

John O'Hara

Noel Walsh

SF with two candidates appears to be more focused on raising profiles in advance of the next local elections than anything else. While Labour might have made a mistake running two again it will probably pay off this time with the increase in the national vote and the likelihood that they will be the more transfer attractive to the less party aligned neutrals.

Our prediction is for FF to come in with 24% of the vote, FG 38%, Labour 18%, SF 7%, Greens 4%, Indo 2%. We will post individual candidate predictions later on when we’ve had more coffee and if we can keep the breakfast down.

Seat Prediction FF 1 FG3 Lab 1

Louth

Current Seat allocation 4 FF 2 FG 1 SF1

Candidates Declared to date

Cllr Declan Breathnach FF

Sen James Carroll FF

Fergus O'Dowd FG

Peter Fitzpatrick FG

Cllr Gerald Nash Lab

Mary Moran Lab

Mark Deary Green

Gerry Adams DF

Thomas Clare Ind

Gerry Crilly Ind

Seamus Kirk is automatically re-elected as Ceann Comhairle which is just as well as his prospects if he was campaigning might not be that great. FF senator for a day James Carroll will run about talking about how he is clean and devoid of any responsibility for what the government did given that he’s in the Oireachtas less than a wet week which is true. Mark Dreary will hold a personal vote and might be one of those who can provide a bridge to the Green rebuilding effort post this election. Labour should given its strong rise in Leinster and attractiveness to the commuter voter is able to swing this one. If not then Labour will end up providing FG with the transfers need to get a 2^nd seat. SF aren’t getting a 2^nd, nor FF a 3^rd or the Greens won't get 1 so it’s really down to FG and Labour and the national trend would tend to favour Labour.

Vote Prediction FF 24% FG 35% SF 18% Lab 15% Green 4% Indo 4%

FF 2 SF 1 FG 1 Lab 1

The throat goes national

We have over the years established a bit of a track record in the election prediction business, but it’s been mainly a local effort, arsing about UL and considering the local goings-on. Not for us appearances on Rte or the radio. For the first few years the predictions were pretty good all told, especially when you understand that we weren’t actually doing anything in the way of polling as it is commonly understood. Towards the end it all unravelled a bit but we’re inclined to ignore that bad patch if you will. We thought this time out we’d have a real go at predictions on the national stage, after making a trail run at the 2007 Seanad elections. We hope to get to all the constituencies up eventually but we also might not, there are real world jobs to be done, hair needs cutting, the cowshed has to be cleaned and turf cut (ok the turf is staying in the ground until the weather is much drier and there is considerably more of a stretch in the evenings but you get the idea)

We use long established scientific methods based on travelling to the constituencies, meeting people from the constituencies, passing by people in train stations who look like they have been to the constituency and looking long and hard at the constituencies on google maps. We also combine this modern approach with consideration of the entrails of animals often times cooked into a crispy blackness and wrapped in a burger Bap. It’s unpleasant work and has done considerable harm to our figures but it works.

We might even package the lot up with some useful charts, maps and other graphics for you to download and print off your own selection to enjoy on count day. We will do some count templates for the various seats 3/4/5 seaters. And we might have charts and pretty pictures and graphics if time allows.

So let’s get predicting!

These predictions are based on the notion that irrespective of the fluctuations in the polls that the likely national of share of the vote right now is

FF 23% FG 34% Lab 19% SF 11% Green 2% Independents 9% ULA 2%

We are of the belief that there is a significant shy bladder factor at play with FF and that many of those who like that nice Mr. Gilmore won’t be able bring themselves to vote for that same effing Labour candidate that they weren’t able to bring themselves to vote for long before now. FG is doing alright but not spectacular and that any Enda problem is cancelled out by the candidates themselves. That the votes the Greens lost in 2009 aren’t coming back to them and so they’re going to lose worse yet they will be along with FF, for this election at least, more transfer repellent than SF was in the darkest days of the armed struggle. And then we have the latest People before Profit front, is this the front for the front of the Socialist Workers Party will attract some decent votes that might otherwise have gone to SF? But barring the vote that the main contenders will get based on their own local track record we don’t see that the ULA candidate in Roscommon will be bothering the count for long.

When it comes to independents, lots of people like the idea of an independent until they got a close look at the actual independents that are running for the people who want a Jackie Healy Rae type in Dublin South then Shane Ross is not the man for them as vice versa.

The list of candidates will be finalised on Feb 9th but we will outline a few constituencies in the next 24hrs in advance of that to give a flavour of what we think is likely to happen at this point and give you an idea of what we do. Feel free to link, tweet, or email the contact details around. We can be emailed but we don’t do requests, this isn’t Larry Gogan.

Kerry North – West Limerick or the Earl of Desmond revival Constituency

Current Seat allocation 3 seater - FF 1 SF 1 FG 1

Vote % in 2007

FF 31 FG 32 SF 20% Lab 11 Grn 2 Indo 3%

Candidates Declared to date

Tom McEllistrim

Jimmy Deenihan

John Sheahan

Arthur Spring

Tom Donovan

Martin Ferris

Mary Fitzgibbon

Sam Locke

John McKenna

Bridget O'Brien

Mick Reidy

We expect Martin Ferris to top the poll here as we suspect that FG are in the process of pulling a very sly one altogether. Most polls local and extrapolations of national polls applied locally have Jimmy Deenihan on 30% and more with his running mate on the mid single figures around 5/7% but where local polls go badly wrong is where a candidate has a disproportionate amount of the vote in a couple of areas FG got 52% in the Rathkeale LEA and got 3 out of 4 seats in 2009. Cllr Sheahan doubled his own vote

So instead of FG getting one guy elected with 32% and the other bloke getting 7%, what if they could manage it better so that one got 20% while the other got 15% (allowing for some losses in the management effort) and where this to place the 2nd FG ahead of either an underperforming Labour candidate or imploding FF candidate it might just be possible for the 2nd FGer to get the transferred needed to overhaul either the FFer or the Labour candidate (depending on which of the scenarios happened). Is it likely? Not really but it is plausible and suggests why FG is running two here: the aim is to be able to take best advantage if either scenario comes about. More so as it locks up the locally inclined West Limerick vote so that the others don’t have free access to it while not putting Deenihan’s seat in any real jeopardy.

Vote prediction FF 16% FG 38% Sf 24% Lab 20% Independent 2%

Seat Prediction Lab 1 SF 1 FG 1 – but if Spring underperforms or McE completely blows up don’t be astounded to see it end up as FG 2 SF 1

Vote for me - the national version

Thinking of reviving the auld blog and giving it a run out on the national scene. Watch this space, or the space around this space.

Election Day! Part the 2nd

These are our final predictions

Turnout under 2,000 or so.

Presidential

We feel there has been some movement in the Presidential race and that Ruan has dropped back a bit, call it complacency in the minds of the voters, call it what have you done for me lately. We still don't reckon it will cost him the race but however the main movement is not in the person who is perceived at the moment to be in 2nd place but in one of the back markers.

The most likely scenario we see is Cloheesy and Brosnan go out on the first count and favour Ryan slightly over Dillon and Rockett but probably not enough for Ryan to catch Rockett or for Ruan to be elected. Then Ryan goes and Ruan stays well ahead of Rockett.

Our final prediction is

Ruan 41%

Rockett 25%

Ryan 17%

Brosnan 9%

Clohessy 6%

Welfare

Derek Daly 60% plus
Daniel Reid under 35%

Could a fair few spoiled here 2/3%

Campaigns & Services
Vivion Grisewood 44%
Lorcan O'Neill 56%

Looks like "the Ticket" is exploding and taking both partners in the pact down with it.

Communications
Finn McDuffie 52%
Eoghan O'Brien 47%

This one might be slipping back to McDuff, the softly softly with the criticism of the SU might have reached close to breaking point but it might not prove enough for the more slight campaign of O'Brien. This one can still go either way.

Election Day!

Our near to final predictions (we do another one at close of polls)

Presidential

We feel there has been some movement in the Presidential race and that Ruan has dropped back a bit, call it complacency in the minds of the voters, call it what have you done for me lately. We still don't reckon it will cost him the race but however the main movement is not in the person who is perceived at the moment to be in 2nd place but in one of the back markers.

Rating it right now, we'd say

Ruan 39%

Rockett 23%

Ryan 19%

Brosnan 10%

Clohessy 8%

Welfare

Derek Daly 60% plus
Daniel Reid under 40%

Campaigns & Services
Vivion Grisewood 47%
Lorcan O'Neill 53%

Looks like "the Ticket" is exploding and taking both partners in the pact down with it.

Communications
Finn McDuffie 48%
Eoghan O'Brien 52%

This one might be slippy away from McDuff, the softly softly with the criticism of the SU might have reached breaking point. This one can be rescued during the course of the day though.

And finally for the day that's innit; here's part of Duran Duran!

Pre-Hustings round up

To clear up a couple of inaccuracies in the coverage so far, 5 is not an unprecedented number to runf of the post of President there was a campaign in 1991 whereby 29 or so ran, now that was a campaign! This lead to changes in the rules so that you could only nominate one person and the increase in the required signatures for nomination.

President

Sharon Brosnan [weblink]
Louise Clohessy
Ruán Dillon-McLoughlin
Paddy Rockett
Nicholas Ryan

It's very hard to unseat the incumbent and given that there is an absence of revolutionary fervour around campus I suspect that Ruan will be re-elected though not by the margin of last year. We'd say he will get 40% plus of the 1st preferences and given the number of chasers none will be able to catch him. He would have to blow up at the hustings and for word of that to get around for him to lose it now.

DP/Welfare

Derek Daly [weblink]
Daniel Reid

Daly has done a reasonable job and Reid appears too much of a last minute thought. Daly by 10% or more
Education

Aoife Finnerty
As the sole nominated candidate for the position of Education Officer, Aoife Finnerty is deemed elected unopposed.

Campaigns & Services
Vivion Grisewood [weblink]
Lorcan O'Neill [weblink]

Hard to call, the previous campaigning experience of Pa O'Brien is bound to help Grisewood but I think the cycle might be turning on this one. All to play for at this stage.


Communications

Finn McDuffie [weblink]
Eoghan O'Brien [weblink]

So the McDuff sired by Breenie out of Ni Raghallaigh is running at last. I think last year was a sign that there is a non An Focal vote out there but it's hard to channel. McDuff to win more handily than Ni Raghallaigh did I suspect.